Republicans have increased their odds of winning back the U.S. Senate as former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced that he is running for the seat left vacant by retiring Senator Ben Cardin. This surprise move by Hogan is a strategic recruitment victory by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, as blue state Maryland joins a winnable electoral map that favors Senate Republicans in a presidential election year.
Republicans have been reeling in losses these last few election cycles because they ran bad candidates in winnable races.
The popular former two-term Republican governor left office with a 77 percent approval rating and considered running for Senate in 2022, but he declined. His repeated criticism of former Donald Trump led many pundits to speculate he would run as a third-party candidate ticket for “No Labels.” However, his endorsement of former Ambassador Nikki Haley for president clarified that he still wants to be a voice in the Republican Party. (READ MORE from Alex Adkins: San Francisco Swings and Misses on Crime, Theft, and Shohei Ohtani)
In his announcement video, Hogan called for an end to petty partisanship, stating, “Washington is completely broken because that kind of leadership, that kind of willingness to put country over party, has become far too rare.” He offered a stern, pragmatic approach, saying, “I don’t come from the performative art school of politics. I come from the get to work and get things done school, and I’ll work with anyone who wants to do the people’s business.”.
According to CNN political director David Chalian, Larry Hogan’s entrance into Maryland’s senate race is “Chuck Schumer’s nightmare.” As it currently stands, The Senate is 51-49 in favor of Democrats, but they are defending 23 of 34 seats in this year’s election. States like Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia are all states that Trump won in 2016 and 2020 and look to be prime pickups for Republicans in this race. Now, add Maryland into the mix as a new potential pickup. Republicans only need to flip two seats to deny Chuck Schumer his majority leadership.
Winning Maryland has never been easy for Republicans. The last Republican senator to win an election in the Old Line state was Charles Mathias in 1980. President Joe Biden beat former President Trump by over 30 points in the most recent presidential election. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin, which makes it difficult for any Republican to win. Hogan won his first race for governor in 2014 in an upset against then-Lt. Governor Anthony Brown. He prevailed in a landslide in his reelection to a second term as governor.
Interestingly enough, in 2018, Senator Ben Cardin ran for reelection and won 65 percent of the vote in Maryland, while Governor Hogan won his election by 12 points on the same ballot. It suggests that he’s the type of Republican who can win over moderates, independents, and a decent amount of Democratic voters. Running for governor is an entirely different dynamic than running for U.S. Senate. No ex-governor has won the Senate since Herbert Romulus O’Conor in 1946. Republican governors have difficulty winning senate races due to the nationalization of federal issues, and the same is true for democratic governors. (READ MORE: Freedom Conservatives: A Stand Against Progressivism and Populism)
Not only does Larry Hogan have an excellent name ID as a successful two-term ex-governor, but his dad, former representative Larry Hogan Sr., was a well-known congressman who represented the eastern portion of D.C. and was known for impeaching President Nixon as a party member. In Hogan’s announcement video, he shared his dad’s willingness to put country over party.
This approach is paying off so far. According to an independent poll from The Baltimore Banner, Governor Hogan is beating his most likely opponent, Angela Alsobrooks, 42 percent to 36 percent. Inside Elections has shifted the race from Solid Democratic to Likely Democratic. American United Inc., a Hogan-based nonprofit issue advocacy group, raised around $975,000 in 2022 and spent $1.8 million to promote Hogan further nationally. Republicans pouring in financial resources forces Democrats to spend more money in Maryland instead of allocating that money to more critical races.
Hogan has never run in a presidential election. His feud with Trump at the top of the ticket could hurt him with Republican voters who see him as a squish. Nikki Haley would be the perfect nominee as she polls strongly with independent voters. Matthew Foldi of Spectator believes Republicans will come home for Hogan because “Republicans are tired of losing.”(READ MORE: Doug Ducey: The Right’s New Free-Market Champion)
The stakes for control of the U.S. Senate have never been higher as Democrats plan to pass D.C. statehood, pack the court, and end the filibuster with an expanded majority. Republicans have been reeling in losses these last few election cycles because they ran bad candidates in winnable races. Larry Hogan will never be the most conservative senator, but he is a good Republican senator for a state like Maryland and can win.