“The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun.” tweeted the D.C.-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War on June 8. With $75 billion going from Washington to Ukraine since the February 2022 invasion, reports that armored American Bradley Fighting Vehicles have entered combat, and the possibility for a nuclear power plant to be in the war zone, the offensive will be closely watched by American analysts.

Ukrainian commanders have said that they will release no statements regarding the beginning of the counteroffensive, according to the Guardian. The Institute for the Study of War, however, reported on June 8 that the combat is centered in the Zaporizhzhya and Donetsk provinces — or oblasts, as they are known — of southeastern Ukraine. (RELATED: Ukraine’s Counteroffensive)

Nuclear Power Enters the Picture

The Zaporizhzhya region made headlines in November 2022 when the combat zone approached the oblast’s nuclear power plant, which is the largest one in Europe, according to the Associated Press. At the time, the plant endured several hits from artillery shells and lost external power, forcing the shutdown reactors to be cooled by backup generators.

Whether or not those hits were intentional has been debated by international leaders. Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency — the U.N.’s nuclear arm — Rafael Grossi told Al Jazeera that “The people who are doing this know where they are hitting. It is absolutely deliberate.”

When combat around the plant flared up again in May, however, Moscow’s ambassador to the U.N., Vassily Nebenzia, told CBS News that such claims were simply not true and that Russia has not stationed military personnel or heavy weapons at the plant, nor did they attack it. (READ MORE: Ukraine, Sudan, and the Electric Army)

Action in the Zaporizhzhya Oblast

Regardless, there is potential for Kyiv’s counteroffensive to endanger the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) once more. Reports from the Guardian and the Japan Times showed heightened Ukrainian activity, including American-made Bradley Fighting Vehicles, between the Ukrainian-held town of Orikhiv and the Russian-held city of Tokmak. Only 52 miles east of the Zaporizhzhya power plant, Tokmat is not only a key communications and logistics center for the Russians, it is also between Orikhiv and Melitopol, which is seen as an important Ukrainian target.

Tokmak, a Russian-held logistics hub, lies halfway between Ukrainian-held Orikhiv and suspected Ukrainian target Melitopol. ZNPP is around 50 miles west of Tokmak. (Google Landsat/Copernicus Data SIO, NOAA, U.S. Navy, NGA, GEBCO TerraMetrics)

The Institute for the Study of War has also received unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian guerilla fighters within the vicinity of the Zaporizhzhya plant. While it is too early to tell if regular troops will meet up with the partisans, the IAEA has been monitoring the situation. IAEA officers reported hearing explosions the morning of June 9 and in a statement released that day, Director General Grossi said, “Increased military activities in the area are adding to our deep concerns about the safety and security of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.” Russia — who occupies the ZNPP — told the nuclear monitor that drones had been conducting kamikaze strikes against Zaporizhzhya’s backup electrical grid, though IAEA has yet to verify those claims.

The Dam Bursts

The recent destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam has added to IAEA’s concerns. With lowered water supplies, Zaporizhzhya has turned to backup power sources to keep the reactors cool. With those backups, the facility can continue for months, though the IAEA has received conflicting reports on the water levels at the plant, and intends to investigate the discrepancy. Due to dropping water levels, Zaporizhzhya “now relies entirely on its sole remaining 750kV power line for off-site electricity, which has been cut repeatedly since the military conflict began in February 2022.”

Director Grossi intends to visit the Zaporizhzhya plant and other sites in Ukraine next week to personally monitor the situation. Updates from IAEA are expected to follow.

Halfway through earning a master’s in national security at the Institute of World Politics, Mason Stauffer is part of The American Spectator’s 2023 intern class. When he isn’t preparing for his future career in the national security sector, Mason can usually be found hiking through the National Park System or playing his trumpet.