A spate of strong polling for Donald Trump has Republicans energized. Leading in several national polls and key swing states, Trump has the upper hand. Nonsense, say Democrats. Biden and the Democrats are winning where it counts: at the ballot box. Who is right? Both sides have some evidence on their side.
If the election were held now, Trump would win easily. More importantly, Trump leads in several critical swing states. At the writing of this analysis, Trump has chalked up 9-straight national polls where he leads Biden, head-to-head. Even third-party nuisances like Robert Kennedy and Cornel West have failed to dislodge Trump. (READ MORE: JPMorgan CEO Urges Democrats to Support Nikki Haley)
Trump’s national polling lead comes from a variety of media outlet polls. From the New York Times to NBC News to CNN to Reuters, the entire “rogues’ gallery” (to conservatives) says Biden is losing. Remarkably, the only recent poll showing Biden leading (plus 4-points) is from Rassmussen — generally considered a Republican-leaning poll.
For much of the year, Biden and Trump had been locked in a tight polling back-and-forth, but recently the combination of low approval ratings, sourness on the economy, and clear distaste at another Biden candidacy have finally overwhelmed the president. The Nov. 14 YouGov benchmark has 57 percent of voters against Biden running for re-election, including 63 percent of independents. No demographic had a majority favoring a Biden re-run. Biden’s approval average remains a net negative 15.2 points and the right track/wrong direction numbers are an abysmal 26 percent right track vs. 66 percent wrong direction. That’s Jimmy Carter territory.
The State of the States
But the real fight is state-by-state with Trump needing to gain 38 electoral votes over his 2020 totals. If he does not lose any states, he has already netted 3 electoral votes based on the decennial census. The closest states for Trump were Georgia (16 electoral votes), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (19), Nevada (6) and Michigan (15). The margin was under 1 percent in the first three and under 2 percent in Pennsylvania. Trump needs Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin or Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Trump leads in the RealClearPolitics polling averages for Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan, only trailing in Wisconsin by less than 1 point. Pennsylvania and Michigan are close, within 2-points with recent polls giving Trump a lead of 3-points (Morning Consult) and 4-points (Siena) in Pennsylvania. The latest polls in Georgia (Morning Consult: 9-points) and Arizona (Noble: 8-points) are brutal for Biden. Siena has Trump with a big 11-point lead in Nevada. (READ MORE: The Slow Demise of the Democrat Party)
For Biden, there is nowhere to gain based on recent polling. The closest Trump state in 2020 was North Carolina where Biden lost by just under 1.5 percent. Morning Consult has Biden down 9 points in the Tarheel State and Emerson has him down 11 points. The next closest state was Florida with a 3.36 percent margin and an over 370,000 vote deficit — not even the most dyed-in-the-hemp Democrat thinks Biden has a chance there.
If Trump holds to his polling average leads, he flips the electoral college with a 302-236 victory. Biden needs to keep his tenuous hold on Wisconsin and bring back the other northern states to eke out a bare minimum victory of 270-268.
Fait Accompli? Maybe Not.
As bad as things are, Trump should not be popping champagne corks just yet. There are troubling signs for Republicans including losing actual elections the past two years, fumbling party organizations, Trump’s own numbers, and his undisciplined history.
Elections are won at the ballot box, not in the opinion polls and Republicans have booted two straight elections. Historically, the first presidential terms have been an electoral disaster — but not this time. Republicans should have at least 52 Senate seats and 235 House seats — yet, in actuality, they have a Senate minority and are a dysfunctional slight majority in the House. Trump-endorsed candidates in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania lost races that, again historically, they should have won. Herschel Walker was thoroughly incompetent and running Mehmet Oz — a New Jersey TV doctor — in very nativist Pennsylvania was stupefying. (READ MORE: Is Pennsylvania Turning Purple?)
The fact is Democrats are winning when it counts.
Biden will also have a party organization advantage. The Republican National Committee under Rona McDaniel is a fumbling, stumbling mess. McDaniel is about as clueless a cipher who has ever “led” a major party. In the Virginia legislative elections, the RNC refused a last-minute request for $1 million — chump change in today’s politics. Outspent by a mile, Gov. Glenn Youngkin and Virginia Republicans needed every cent of support they could get — and that bit of cash might have made the difference in close contests. If the RNC won’t go the extra mile to win, why does it exist?
Losing, losing and more losing is McDaniel’s legacy. I don’t agree with Vivek Ramaswamy on many things, but he is absolutely on the mark about the need to dump McDaniel. Worse for Trump, the two states Biden must hold, Michigan and Pennsylvania, are home to a pair of sputtering, defective state parties. And these are the states with the narrowest Trump leads.
Michigan Republicans are beset with a mess of a party. In 2022, they could not even gather enough proper petition signatures to place their leading gubernatorial candidates on the ballot. The party is broke, full of infighting, and it lost both legislative chambers for the first time in over 40 years. The anger of the large Muslim community is a problem for Biden, but they are not voting Republican and could swallow Biden if Trump is the alternative. The polling is close enough that a competent, well-funded, energetic Democratic organization could make the difference over the fumbling, cash-strapped Republicans.
But in the contest for the worst state Republican party, Pennsylvania has sprinted into the lead. The party has done nothing but lose for the past two years. For the first time since the 1940s, there are two elected Democratic senators. The Democrats had not won three gubernatorial elections in a row since before the invention of the telegraph — that is, until 2022. If that were not enough, the party topped itself not only by losing its marquee race for a vacant Supreme Court seat but by failing to even run an absentee ballot program.
Say what you will about absentee (mail-in) ballots, some people genuinely need them. In a state without early in-person voting, like Pennsylvania, an absentee ballot program is necessary and a foundational responsibility of the state party (lack of such a program likely cost Republicans several close local contests). When a state party cannot or will not fulfill its minimum responsibilities, there’s no reason for it to exist. Today the Pennsylvania GOP is just wasting oxygen.
Trump as ‘Not Biden’ — For Now
In 2020, Biden won by not being Trump. Current polling might just be the reverse, with Trump as “Not Biden.” Trump’s trials are an obsession of the hardcore anti-Trumpers and the most fervent Trumpers, but most Americans are not paying much attention. That won’t last.
As bad as Biden’s approval numbers are, Trump’s are a bit worse at negative 15-points. While 57 percent don’t want Biden to run, 55 percent don’t want Trump — well within the margin of error. When the spotlight is back on Trump, things are not likely to get better. Trump has become a gaffe machine on the stump and his total lack of discipline is a problem.
I am certain Trump would have won handily in 2020 if he had just been disciplined in the first debate. Recall that the Democrats were running a non-campaign, keeping the gaffe-prone Biden under wraps. Biden could not hide on the debate stage. The correct strategy for Trump should have been to keep it short and simple, forcing Biden to talk — which would likely have led to disaster. Instead, Trump would not shut up, thrilling Biden to no end. When Trump was forced to talk less in the second debate, Biden talked himself right into trouble — by then it was too late.
Trump leads Biden, but he should be far, far ahead. Biden’s terrible numbers should mean a 10-point or more deficit, not 2-points. Despite lower name recognition, Nikki Haley polls better than Trump in the ballot test against Biden. Even better, Biden falls over 4 points when tested against Haley. With 100 percent name recognition, Biden has very little room to grow, but the less-known Haley does, meaning her average 4-point lead is a significant underestimate of her true potential.
And then there are Trump’s legal troubles. Trump could be on trial for multiple felonies. Or maybe he will be appealing convictions on several counts. Is he sitting at the defendants’ table? Is he on parole? Regardless, Trump’s legal quagmire is most certainly not a political benefit outside of his most dedicated supporters — and he already has them (I should note that if he is acquitted, he will likely coast to an easy win).
The bottom line is that Trump is ahead but underperforming given Biden’s terrible numbers. The race is competitive and has a long way to go.