Donald Trump recently called Vladimir Putin crazy after a massive Russian aerial attack on Ukraine. Trump has made repeated attempts to approach Putin as a rational actor that he can deal with. Putin has ignored these overtures and has consistently refused Trump’s offers to be a good-faith negotiator between Russia and Ukraine.
Three things are at play here.
First, I don’t think Putin is really crazy. But I do think he lives in an alternative reality from Trump and the West in general. In that reality, Russia faces threats from a sinister West that must always be met with strength. Putin is humiliated by his perception that Russia was unfairly taken advantage of after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Second, Putin wrongly believes that Trump is a weak actor on the world stage due to Trump’s deference to Putin in the past. Dictators who have been in power for a long time are used to deference and see that deference as a prerogative for power. With no effective internal feedback loop, they begin to believe their own press releases. Ultimately, they tend to underestimate their opponents. Stalin underestimated Hitler just as Caesar underestimated the opposition to his regime in the Roman Senate. Darius and Xerxes thought the Greeks would be pushovers when faced with Persian might.
This underestimation leads to the third point, which is Putin’s failure to anticipate the extent of Trump’s vindictiveness when he feels he has been double-crossed. Putin has not seen that side of Trump, but domestic political actors and many traditional U.S. allies have, and it is not pretty. It is time for Trump to show his fangs.
Trump is a transactional creature. To have a transaction, you must offer to give the other fellow either something he wants or to cease doing something he really dislikes. So far, the threat of further sanctions has not impressed the Russian leader, but there is one thing that would get his attention.
Trump should make a simple announcement threatening the shipment of air defense systems to Ukraine. He could say something like: “My patience with Russian foot-dragging is at an end. Putin’s recent attack on Ukraine with missiles and drones is unacceptable. Ukraine has asked for air defense systems sufficient to prevent such attacks in the future. Beginning today, I have authorized the Defense Department to provide sufficient systems to prevent such future attacks. When those systems are in place, I will further authorize the experimental deployment of air defense systems associated with the Golden Dome project to be deployed to Ukraine for testing under combat conditions. Putin can cease this reinforcement by agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire and personally attending the peace talks in Turkey. If the talks appear to be productive, we will suspend such shipments pending a provisional agreement between the parties to the conflict. If no, we’ll see what happens.”
Putin has obviously calculated that he can withstand the pain of further sanctions and that he has enough convicts, contract soldiers, and North Koreans to wear down the Ukrainians, but the missile and drone strikes needed to continue his “forever war” of attrition are his ace in the hole. The threat of taking that trump card away would give him a new reality perspective in regard to Trump’s ability to influence the action.
There are several advantages here for Trump. First, he can honestly say that the tried to deal with Putin as an open and honest rational actor before being ignored. Second, Trump shows he can be tough if that is needed. Third, he keeps his options open: If the Russian leader remains recalcitrant, Trump can always provide more lethal aid if more pressure is needed.
Most importantly, Trump is walking a fine line between the America Firsters in his coalition and those who want him to be tough on Russia. This approach allows him to tell the members of the MAGA faction who don’t have much support for Ukraine that he is defending the lucrative mineral deal that he cut with Zelensky while also showing the foreign policy crowd that he is not overly soft on Moscow.
In a recent column, George Will accuses Trump of being too soft on Putin. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant and water under the bridge. Trump has tried the “nice doggie” approach long enough, and it hasn’t worked. Now it is time to show the stick he’s been hiding behind his back.
Gary Anderson lectures on Red Teaming and Alternative Analysis at the George Washington University’s Elliott school of International Affairs.