After the White House shouting contest on Friday, U.S. support for Ukraine may be at an end. No one can be happy about that except Vladimir Putin.
A little background before we get to the shouting.
Before he became vice president, J.D. Vance led Senate opposition to any further aid to Ukraine. That may have led to Trump choosing him as his running mate.
We have a national security interest in Ukraine, but not a vital one that would compel us to risk American lives there.
Last week both French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited with President Trump. Each offered to station troops in Ukraine as part of a peace deal. (Putin said he wouldn’t accept any foreign troops there.) These were backdoor offers to make Ukraine a de facto NATO member. Any attack on French or UK forces in Ukraine would be enough for them to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty which requires all NATO members to defend each other.
Last week Trump’s ambassador voted at the UN with Russia and China on a Ukraine resolution on the third anniversary of the Russian war against Ukraine. The resolution condemned Russian aggression. Why would Trump not support Ukraine’s resolution? Only because it didn’t fit with his rhetoric.
Over the past two weeks, Trump had accused Zelensky of being a dictator for failing to hold elections since Russia started the war and hinted that Ukraine caused the war. (The Ukrainian constitution provides for suspension of elections in time of war when martial law is declared as it has been.) Vance said that he — and, apparently, Trump — believe that Putin would negotiate in good faith for a truce. That is absurd. Putin’s KGB past, his personal record and his entire genetic makeup prevent him from negotiating in good faith.
Trump had adopted Putin’s talking points. That was the setup for the Friday meeting.
When Ukrainian President Zelensky entered the White House on Friday, there was the expectation that he and Trump would sign an agreement enabling the U.S. to mine and export Ukraine’s wealth of rare earth metals which are critical to many technologies from cell phones to satellites. That was the reason things went awry.
Zelensky had said, for weeks, that he wanted U.S. security guarantees as part of the deal on minerals. It was another back-door attempt at de facto NATO membership. When he was presented with a deal to sign, it contained no U.S. security guarantees.
Taking questions from reporters, Vance said he had to respond to questions about negotiations with Russia without Ukraine. (Zelensky had previously said that Ukraine would not be bound by any agreement made in its absence.)
Vance cut in to say, “I have to respond. What makes America a good country is America’s engaging in diplomacy. That’s what President Trump is doing.”
Zelensky replied, laying out Putin’s war of aggression that goes back to 2014, saying nobody stopped Putin in that period which included Trump’s first term. According to the Wall Street Journal, that’s when things fell apart. Vance, visibly angry, said, “It’s disrespectful to come to the Oval Office and try to litigate this in front of the media.” Vance added, “Have you said thank you once?”
At that point, Zelensky accused Vance of shouting and everything fell apart.
Trump interjected, saying, “You’re in no position to dictate to us what we’re going to feel.” Trump later accused Zelensky of “gambling with World War III.”
No agreement for U.S. mining of Ukraine’s rare earth metals was signed because of Zelensky’s demand for U.S. security guarantees.
After the meeting, which lasted about 50 minutes, Trump said, “I think we’ve seen enough,” signaling the meeting’s end. Zelensky was then essentially thrown out of the White House.
A calmer, less impatient Trump could have saved the meeting and calmed both Vance and Zelensky. But he didn’t.
All of this gave Putin more hope than he should have. In Russia, double-digit inflation is the norm. Interest rates exceed twenty percent and Russia is having enormous problems replacing the tanks and armored vehicles that have been lost to weapon systems such as the U.S.-made Javelin missile.
Oleg Vyugin, a former deputy head of Russia’s central bank, said that Putin may have to choose between cutting military spending or rampant inflation. The Friday meeting may have made that choice for him. It’s questionable whether Putin can sustain his war much longer but in the aftermath of the Friday shouting contest Putin must have greater hope.
Trump said about a week ago that the peace deal would have to be made quickly or not at all. It appears the “not at all” idea will be the result.
Will Trump end all U.S. support for Ukraine? At this point we don’t know.
Like him or not, Zelensky is Ukraine’s elected president. Whether Trump or Vance like Zelensky or not and whether Trump really trusts Putin, we risk Putin’s conquest of Ukraine which would endanger the NATO nations.
As this column has often said, putting U.S. troops into Ukraine would be an enormous mistake. We have a national security interest in Ukraine, but not a vital one that would compel us to risk American lives there. Our only interest is in thwarting Putin’s conquest of Ukraine. By demanding U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine, Zelensky overplayed his hand.
Trump is an impatient man. He said that the Russian war in Ukraine would be solved between his election and inauguration. He also said that he could bring an end to the war in 24 hours. None of that happened. Now the president has to decide whether we will continue to support Ukraine.
For Trump, it may be a bitter choice but only one outcome is reasonable: to continue support for Ukraine, with or without Zelensky in power.
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