It wasn’t all that long ago when Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron was all but written off as a gubernatorial challenger to Kentucky’s Democrat incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear.

In fact, an Emerson College/Fox56 News poll in early October had Beshear ahead of Cameron by a 49–33 count. At the time, that seemed to indicate that — while it was clear that of the three gubernatorial races on the ballot this fall, Republicans would certainly gain one (and Jeff Landry won a resounding jungle-primary victory in Louisiana with 51.6 percent of the vote against a 14-opponent field) and likely hold one (in Mississippi, incumbent Tate Reeves leads by 8–12 points in independent polling over Democrat challenger Brandon Presley, though Democrat polls show the race closer) — a three-for-three hat trick in gubernatorial races appeared elusive. (READ MORE from Scott McKay: Will Louisiana’s Red Blowout Translate Nationally?)

That was in early October. Now it’s Election Day, and Emerson College’s latest poll has a very different reading on the Cameron–Beshear race:

It’s a dead heat in Kentucky.

In virtually all other public surveys, GOP gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron had been trailing Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear. But in the one taken closest to when Kentuckians vote, Cameron tied Beshear 47-47.

The poll was conducted by Emerson College Polling, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2. Early voting had just begun on the final day of the poll.

Of those 1,000 likely voters polled, both Beshear and Cameron, the state’s attorney general, received the support of exactly 469. About 4% were undecided and just over 2% said they’d vote for “someone else” despite there being nobody else on the ballot, the Emerson poll revealed.

With 1,000 likely voters surveyed, the margin of error is +/- 3%.

Even more good news for Cameron: When the undecided voters were pressed on who they’d support, he led Beshear by a slim 49-48 margin.

That’s a terrific indication of a surge by Cameron at just the right time. Incumbents who find themselves tied in the polls with challengers who were behind by double digits a month earlier tend to become ex-incumbents not long after election night, and Beshear, a scion of an old-school Democrat ruling-class family in Kentucky, seems to be stumbling down the stretch.

And unlike the Louisiana gubernatorial race — which was more a testament to Landry’s retail politics and voter exhaustion with the atrocious performance of a two-term Democrat governor who oversaw a stagnant economy, runaway urban crime, and massive outmigration — should Cameron knock off Beshear in Kentucky, it could very easily show a national trend:

Compared to the October Emerson poll, the one that had Beshear up by 16 points, supporters of former GOP president Donald Trump have swung hard in Cameron’s direction.

“Cameron appears to have gained ground by consolidating Republican voters who supported former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a memo.

“In October, 54% of Trump supporters supported Cameron. Now, as election day approaches, that number has jumped to 79% – a 25-point increase.”

Kimball also pointed out that in early October, the firm polled only 450 registered voters while this survey reached voters deemed “likely” to head to the polls or even those who’d already voted.

Unlike in 2019 — when Beshear defeated controversial former GOP Gov. Matt Bevin by a razor-thin 5,000-vote margin — there is no third-party candidate on the ballot this year. In 2019, Libertarian candidate John Hicks received 2% of the vote.

Cameron spokesperson Sean Southard said the poll is a signal that Cameron has grabbed momentum in the final days. He also referenced Democratic President Joe Biden, a frequent target of conservative messaging in this year’s gubernatorial race.

“The race between Biden Cheerleader Andy Beshear and Trump-backed Attorney General Daniel Cameron continues to tighten,” Southard said in a Friday morning statement. “It’s clear momentum is building for AG Cameron as voters learn more about Andy’s continued support for Joe Biden and his agenda in Kentucky.”

Beshear has generally scored somewhat well in approval polling, though not because he’s performed particularly well.

Kentucky’s economy has been less than stellar of late. A 5 percent growth figure in 2021, as the state came out of Beshear’s COVID lockdowns, isn’t amazing, and a 1.8 percent growth figure last year is downright putrid.

But to hear Beshear tell it, well:

Kentucky has reached a new milestone in economic growth. According to Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, the state’s General Fund receipts for the 2022 fiscal year grew at its highest rate in 31 years.

The Office of the State Budget Director says the fund receipts totaled approximately $14.7 billion, which is a 14.6% growth over last year. The office also says the total exceeded the state’s estimate by approximately $945.5 million. Beshear’s office says officials expect the surplus to be “even higher” after the books close on spending later in July.

The governor’s office says this year’s total is the second-highest revenue surplus the state has ever seen, following the record high from the 2021 fiscal year. Beshear also says Kentucky’s Rainy Day fund is expected to reach $2.7 billion once the books close later this month.

“One of my most important jobs as Governor is to ensure the financial strength and solvency of our great commonwealth – essentially to make sure our financial house is in order,” Beshear said. “These receipts show that personal income, sales and business income are all going up significantly, and even our road fund is up. My administration has now delivered the highest and second-highest revenue surpluses in the history of Kentucky, thanks to strong fiscal management and a hot, record-breaking economy.”

The peasants might be reeling under the strain of taxation, regulation, and inflation, but since the state’s coffers are brimming, the economy is swimming nicely, dontchaknow.

Those approval polls showing Beshear doing well didn’t quite pick up the slow burn of voters irritated by his sucking up to Black Lives Matter, his support for men in women’s sports, and his transgender boosterism. Instead, as Election Day neared, Cameron simply racked up support as Kentucky’s Trump voters came home to him.

If the polling momentum bears out, and Cameron pulls off the upset to flip the Kentucky governor’s mansion red, there will be a young, charismatic, and unquestionably conservative newly elected black Republican governor in a southern state.

Which is something Team Biden earnestly does not want to see in advance of next year.

Kentucky is worth watching election night. Two weeks ago I wouldn’t have said so, but I’m saying it now.