This is being written before the Iowa votes are in.
But one thing is certain.
The race for 1,215 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention is officially now on.
Iowa has gotten its quadrennial tons of attention, with New Hampshire taking its turn in a week on Tuesday, Jan. 23. But with the race for some or all of Iowa’s 40 delegates presumably settled, the march is on to get the 1,215 that will make that person the official nominee of the party at its 2024 convention when it gathers in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, from July 15–18.
Once upon a time, conventions for both parties were central to a presidential race. For vivid stories of dramatic political lore, the stories of these conventions can’t be beat. I’ve had the good fortune to attend my share.
Memorably, that includes attending the 1976 GOP Convention in Kansas City for the classic showdown between incumbent President Gerald Ford and his challenger, former California Gov. Ronald Reagan.
The two challengers arrived at the Kansas City convention with Ford ahead of Reagan in primary wins — but not having the then-required 1,130 delegates that were necessary to clinch the nomination.
The key involved the presumably pro-Reagan Mississippi delegation. As Reagan biographer Craig Shirley recounted in his tale of the drama at convention in his book Reagan’s Revolution: The Untold Story of the Campaign That Started It All:
The New York Times reported: “In Mississippi, for example, the challenger [Reagan] is thought to have overwhelming support among 30 delegates who have not yet declared their preferences. Clarke E. Reed, the State Party Chairman, said it was ‘very likely’ that Mississippi would adopt an informal unit rule as it had in the past, and thus give all of its convention votes to Mr. Reagan.”
And then.
And then the moment came to vote on the convention floor. In an upset, all centered on Mississippi and its presumed Reagan-supporting delegation, Shirley writes:
Mississippi’s delegation, barely on speaking terms with each other, cast sixteen of its thirty votes for Ford. John Hart of NBC described the delegation as being in “intensive care.” They had finally dissolved their unit rule, but [Reagan supporter Billy] Mounger wanted everybody’s apostasy on record as having voted against Reagan so they could face the music when they went home.
It was sheer drama, parts of it played out on the floor in front of the ever-present television cameras.
But, if nothing else, it illustrated just how important keeping track of every individual delegate was.
Here we are, a full 48 years later, and it is safe to say that nothing has changed. Every single delegate to this 2024 convention is important — and, as of the results of the Iowa caucuses, the counting of delegates and keeping track of who is ahead in the race for 1,215 has begun.
Will it go back and forth? Or will the count quickly turn into a blowout as the primaries march on — and on and on.
One suspects that there will be no dramatic 1976-style convention floor showdown in 2024 Milwaukee. In poll after poll, whether national or state, former President Donald Trump leads by a lot, which was decidedly not the case for Ford or Reagan in 1976.
The bottom line?
Get out your calculator and keep tabs on exactly who has how many delegates.
The march to 1,215 has begun.