The fall of the Assad regime in Syria is a fatal blow to Iran’s position in the Middle East and could disrupt Russia’s power projection in the Mediterranean and Africa. But the extent to which this rolls back the Moscow–Tehran “Axis of resistance” will depend on how Turkey exercises its new role as a regional power broker.

Rebel groups launched the ten-day lightning offensive that captured Syria’s capital, Damascus, amalgamating the Turkish-created Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), operated from the northern Syrian province of Idlib, which has been controlled by Turkey for over a decade.
The origins of HTS, which heads the new Syrian government, are traced to Al Qaeda in Iraq. It’s designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. But the group has been deeply penetrated by Turkey’s prolific intelligence service MIT, which virtually runs Idlib and supported the rebel offensive with Bayraktar TB2 drones and other weapons supplied through SNA.
MIT chief Ibrahim Kalin was the first senior foreign official to visit Damascus following the rebel takeover and is believed to have advised on the formation of the new government under HTS leadership. He was followed within days by Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler, who said that Turkey would provide military training for a new Syrian army.
Despite being a long-time U.S. ally and founding member of NATO, Turkey has tended to adopt ambiguous policy positions in sensitive areas, reflecting its own national interests in the Middle East and Southeastern Europe that once formed part of the Ottoman Empire. This tendency has become more marked under the nationalistic Islamist government of President Tayyip Erdogan who has at times followed his own agenda in his relations with Iran and Russia.
Turkey’s immediate priority will be gaining control of areas in northeastern Syria held by U.S.-backed Kurdish rebels connected to the separatist PKK, which Ankara considers a terrorist group.
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