President Donald Trump wants to buy the autonomous province of Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark in the belief that it would be the real estate deal of the century and further the vital national interests of the United States of America. He is in good company. William H. Seward, President Abraham Lincoln’s secretary of state, purchased Alaska from Russia in a deal that was long derided as “Seward’s Folly.” Seward also attempted to buy Greenland from Denmark but failed. Obviously, Seward has had the last laugh.
Ultimately, what matters is control, not sovereignty or ownership.
Nevertheless, Trump’s critics have wasted no time in deriding his proposal as foolish and counterproductive. Yet, President Trump can overcome the skeptics with a simple tweak to his proposal. In lieu of an expensive purchase which would enrich the coffers of the Danes while burdening Americans with the obligations of sovereignty (which the U.S. already has with respect to 14 territories), President Trump should call for and support the immediate freedom and independence of Greenland, and offer to enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with North America’s newest independent state on July 4, 2026.
At that time, the U.S. would also separately sign a new lease agreement for the current military base in Greenland along the same lines as the Guantanamo Bay base in Cuba, which has no termination date.
With the COFA template, President Trump would be following a well-established pathway to crafting a de jure protectorate via a bilateral defense treaty. Currently, the United States has Compacts of Free Association with three independent island states in the western Pacific: the Republic of Palau, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of the Federated States of Micronesia.
Pursuant to these separate bilateral treaties, each of these independent states agrees not to have any security relations with any state whose interests are inimical to those of the United States in return for American military protection, hosting American military facilities, and significant economic assistance. The fundamental strategic rationale for the COFAs is rooted in geographic propinquity, as these three Pacific Island states are vital to the defense of the most vulnerable part of the sovereign territory of the United States: Guam, the Northern Marianas, and American Samoa.
In the case of North America’s largest island, Greenland’s geostrategic importance is based on the fact that it falls clearly within the ambit of the cordon sanitaire spelled out in 1823 by President James Monroe in his bold anti-access, area denial message to Congress: “[W]e should consider any attempt on their part [European powers] to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.”
In effect, by virtue of what became known as the Monroe Doctrine, all the other states of the Americas were unilaterally declared to be de facto protectorates of the United States. Separately and independently of entering into a COFA with Greenland, President Trump should reiterate the enduring centrality of the Monroe Doctrine as the cornerstone of U.S. national security.
Furthermore, he should highlight the three abiding characteristics of the American cordon sanitaire: (1) no foreign power can have a relationship with any state in the cordon sanitaire without at least the implicit acquiescence of the United States, (2) the vital national interests of the states within the cordon sanitaire are subordinate to those of the United States, and (3) the sanctity of the cordon sanitaire will be safeguarded by the United States by all means at its disposal, including military force.
President Trump should also point out to the other members of NATO, who have a joint and several obligation with respect to the defense of Greenland (given its current status as an autonomous province of Denmark, a NATO member), the benefits of an independent Greenland CFA with the United States: they would no longer have to defend Greenland, as it would not be part of the territory of the United States or Denmark.
Ultimately, what matters is control, not sovereignty or ownership. With respect to Greenland, President Donald F. Trump will surely have the last laugh.
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