While President Donald Trump’s popular vote win and landslide electoral victory was historic, a report from Pew Research shows that Trump and the MAGA movement have increasingly resonated with a wider audience of voters. In 2024, Trump gained among women voters, Hispanics, blacks, and young voters in shocking numbers.
We already knew that the country moved in favor of Trump in a massive way this election, as more than 89 percent of counties in the U.S. shifted toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election. However, the Pew Research report helps break down Trump’s win among numerous voting groups, and some of the conclusions are remarkable.
Ethnic Groups and Naturalized Citizens
Trump’s support among black and Hispanic voters has grown significantly in 2024 from 2020 and 2016.
In 2024, Trump doubled his share of the black vote compared to previous elections. He received 15 percent of the black vote in 2024 compared to 8 and 6 percent in 2016 and 2020. Twenty-one percent of black men voted for Trump in the most recent election. While the Left assumes “if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for [Biden] or Trump, then you ain’t black,” they may not be able to take the black vote for granted in future years.
However, by far the most substantial divide is between rural and urban voters, and consistently so.
Trump also made monumental gains among Hispanic voters. Hillary Clinton won Hispanic voters by a margin of 38 points in 2016, with Trump winning only 28 percent of Hispanic voters. That margin has effectively been eliminated, as Trump brought that margin down to only 3 points in 2024, receiving 48 percent of Hispanic votes.
Even foreign-born U.S. citizens supported Trump at much higher levels in 2024 than in 2020. In 2020, naturalized citizens voted for Biden 59 percent to 38 percent, a 21-point spread. By contrast, in 2024 the spread went down to 4 points, with Harris receiving 51 percent of the votes to Trump’s 47 percent.
Trump actually won Hispanic naturalized citizens by a 3-point margin (although Pew Research notes that their sample size of naturalized Hispanics was quite small).
For Younger Voters, the Vibe Shift Is Real
In all three of Trump’s elections, Trump won voters over the age of 50 and lost the under-50 vote. However, while voting patterns for the older voters have largely stayed consistent since 2016, 2024 represented a significant shift to the Right for younger voters. Voting margins for voters aged 18-49 favored Democrats by 17 points in both 2016 and 2020, but that margin diminished to just 7 points in 2024, with Trump receiving 45 percent of younger voters compared to Harris’s 52 percent.
Looking generationally also shows significant shifts. Voters born in the 1990s and 2000s moved 24 points to Trump between 2016 and 2024, although they still voted 13 points in favor of Harris. Further, voters born in the 1970s and 1980s both went from favoring Democrats in the two previous elections to supporting Trump in 2024.
Although there is still significant room for improvement, Trump has convinced significant numbers of younger Americans to join the MAGA train.
Women Warmed to Trump
Daddy’s home in more ways than one, it seems. Critics have attacked Trump for having a “paternalistic” and “dated” view of gender, but over repeated elections Trump has consistently done better, or at least less worse, with women voters. While Trump received only 39 percent of the female vote in 2016, that number increased to 44 percent in 2020 and finally 46 percent in 2024.
There still remains a large gap between men and women’s voting patterns. Men have consistently voted Republican and voted 12 points in favor of Trump this election.
However, the gender divide between men and women represents larger cultural tensions. Gender tensions are growing especially among younger generations, particularly Gen Z. When asked about conservative versus liberal worldviews, one poll showed that “women aged 18 to 30 are now 30 percentage points more liberal than their male contemporaries.”
Voter Turnout
A common view is that higher voter turnout favors Democrats. However, that was simply not the case in 2024.
In fact, if every eligible voter actually did vote, Trump would have won by an even wider margin. Eligible voters who did not cast a ballot said that if they had voted, 44 percent would have voted for Trump compared to 40 percent for Harris.
Trump’s campaign also benefited from higher turnout among those who voted for him in 2020, whereas more Biden voters decided to stay home when Harris ran in 2024.
The Rural-Urban Divide
Much can be said about the voting divide between men and women, between various racial/ethnic groups, and between education levels. However, by far the most substantial divide is between rural and urban voters, and consistently so.
In 2016, 2020, and 2024, a roughly two-to-one margin of rural voters have consistently voted for Trump, whereas a roughly two-to-one margin of urban voters have voted for Democrats. In 2024, 69 percent of rural voters went for Trump, while 65 percent of urban voters favored Harris.
Nonetheless, over the last eight years Trump has succeeded in moving both groups to the Right, even if they both still maintain roughly the two-to-one ratio in opposite directions.
Although the urban-rural divide seems here to stay, it poses significant questions about whether Americans can maintain solidarity with each other in the future, beyond simple voting differences.
For example, many U.S. cities are mirroring European countries in the staggering proportions of their foreign-born residents. According to the New York City mayor’s office, “nearly 40 percent of New York City’s population are immigrants.” However, it says that this number “may be a severe undercount” because of “undocumented” immigrants, and the data does not include any new arrivals since 2020. In other words, close to a majority of New York City residents are not native-born, and many don’t necessarily share the same habits, culture, or national principles.
While Trump won a noteworthy mandate with his popular vote majority last November and brought new groups into the MAGA coalition, the country still faces pressing divides.
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