In his tirade against the GOP and in the wake of the Big Beautiful Bill’s success, Elon Musk wants to create the “America Party,” a new third-party option for voters. President Donald Trump, who gave Musk a position in the federal government and campaigned with him, is not happy with the billionaire and has publicly bashed Musk’s plans. It is doubtful that Musk will abandon his plan to start the “America Party,” but history has dictated that his scheme will likely be futile.

Repeatedly Failed Candidates

What happens to candidates who decide to run in a third lane?

Throughout American history, there have been numerous third-party candidates who have surfaced during each presidential election cycle, but none of these contenders has been able to claim a victory. As of January, there were more than 55 parties officially on ballots across the country. Aside from the Green, Libertarian, and Conservative parties, many Americans would likely be hard-pressed to recognize a political party apart from Democrats and Republicans. (RELATED: Is Elon Musk Ross Perot Reincarnated?)

In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran for president as a Progressive Party candidate. Even Roosevelt, who had formerly been a well-liked Republican president, only garnered 88 electoral votes. Since 1912, no third-party candidate other than George Wallace has secured a single electoral vote.

In recent history, the only alternative candidates who received any serious attention were RFK Jr., who later famously joined the Trump administration, and environmental activist Jill Stein. Even in these most recent cases, Stein and Kennedy were mostly popular for their history in activism or, in Kennedy’s case, the shock factor they presented to the American people by throwing off their previous allegiances.  

No third-party candidate has ever won the presidency. Currently, there are no other-party politicians in the House of Representatives, and only two senators do not identify as either Republican or Democrat, and even then, these two senators caucus with Democrats. 

Challenges Faced by Third Parties

One of the main issues that smaller candidates face is the lack of media attention and publicity they can garner during the election cycle. There are many finance laws, papers to fill out, and questions to answer if you choose to run. Behind the scenes, these endeavors cost a large sum of money, and many candidates are unable to put forth adequate finances without the support of an established, well-funded party.

Furthermore, third-party candidates often fall into the trap of running on a controversial issue that is neglected by Republicans and Democrats.

Richard Hofstadter coined a saying to frame the issue that third parties face: “Third parties are like bees: once they have stung, they die.” Considering this idea, Bruce Schulman of Boston University explains that third parties surface largely because of current social issues or cultural movements. “What almost always happens is that … one of the major parties appropriates their message,” noted Schulman. After issues and ideas have been brought to light by the sting of a third party, the larger parties overtake the movement, and the smaller party effectively dies. 

Does this make third parties useless? Not quite. Schulman goes on to explain that when these parties emerge and bring forth current issues, they effectuate political change: Democrats and Republicans begin talking about the hot-button topics and delineating their plans to federally deal with the issues. However, because the parties swoop in to appeal to voters using issues that the third party has brought to light, the likelihood of such a group assuming power is slim to none. Thus far, holding positions in government is not the role that third parties have played in American government.  

Compounded with financial and ideological setbacks is the cliché that to vote outside of the two-party system is effectively to “throw away your vote.” Each election cycle, frontrunners for the Democrat and Republican parties warn voters against this practice, arguing that the third-party candidates won’t win anyway. Instead, argue the candidates, a vote would be better “spent” supporting an effective party than making a statement.   

Elon Musk can likely evade the financial crisis that other third parties face during elections, but he still must formulate a plan for Americans who believe that Republicans or Democrats could better solve the issues he cares about.

Pleasing the Public

Unbelievably in the face of such consistent failure, businessmen, activists, and politicians continually attempt to forge an alternate path to Washington. Their motives are rooted in pet projects or dissatisfaction with the part that they initially aligned with. Such is the case with Kennedy and Musk.

Continually, the dissatisfaction of the American people with Democrats and Republicans is cited by third parties as a reason to run against these platforms. However, time and again the same public that is unhappy with current party leadership will still vote for the established parties instead of placing other leaders in power.

It stands to reason that Democrats, frustrated with Musk for his enthusiastic support for Donald Trump in the past election cycle, will not vote for the American Party. Similarly, Republicans and Independents who stood firmly behind President Trump are likely to keep voting red, frustrated with the way that Elon turned his back on the president in the last few weeks.

In each case, the trends that have historically dictated voting for over a century are likely to stand, and even Elon cannot outrun the ramifications of running outside of the two-party system.

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