Could the Trump administration be close to brokering a normalization agreement between Syria and Israel? The State Department just announced 180-day sanctions relief for Syria, and the special envoy to Syria and the U.S. ambassador to Turkey commended Syria’s actions on “taking meaningful steps” in cracking down on foreign fighters in the country, in addition to progress in “relations with Israel.”
These developments also come at a time when Israel and Syria are speaking with each other directly over border concerns, and Israeli and Syrian officials have met in Azerbaijan to discuss Syria’s potential ascension into the Abraham Accords, in talks moderated by the United Arab Emirates and attended by Turkey. The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. even predicted that Syria (and Lebanon) could join the Abraham Accords before Saudi Arabia. (RELATED: The Abraham Accords Are the Way Toward Peace)
At first glance, there is enormous potential in a U.S.-brokered normalization agreement between Syria and Israel. The United States and Israel could potentially make significant deals with Syria, including in oil, agriculture, tourism, and other sectors, as the Syrian foreign minister recently boasted that such deals were open to the world.
Syria can help rein in the smuggling of Captagon that originates inside its borders, a drug that Hamas and company used to enhance their genocide against Israel on October 7. Syria just proved that it could do this, as together with Turkey, the country seized 9 million captagon pills. In a gesture to Israel, Syria’s leader, Mohammad al-Jolani (also known as Ahmed al-Sharaa) conveyed that it does not see Israel as a threat, approved the return of many personal effects of famed 1960s Israeli spy Eli Cohen, and is reportedly considering returning the body of Cohen to Israel as well. (For details on Cohen’s amazing story, watch The Spy on Netflix.)
But despite these positive developments, there are much larger concerns making Syria–Israel peace unlikely in the short term.
Jihadists Remain In Syria
Despite the above remarks from the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Syria continues to harbor jihadists. Yes, Syria has been praised for booting Iran-based Palestinian terrorist groups from its borders. But Fatah and Hamas still remain, with one Gazan Hamas official recently telling AFP that Hamas in Gaza has “channels of communication with our brothers in Syria.” Both Hamas and Fatah’s continued presence in Syria will complicate Israel’s security and prospects for Syria–Israel normalization.
Further, it has not been confirmed that the other jihadi figures that came into Syria and even joined Syria’s new government and army brass have left the country. Mere weeks ago, U.S. officials reportedly conveyed to Syria’s foreign minister that Syria’s actions in expelling such foreign fighters and removing them from the leadership of the army are lacking. Additionally, in late March, the U.S. Department of the Treasury added over 400 people to the Specially Designated Nationals list that have ties to Syria. How many of those are tied to al-Jolani and are still in the country?
For al-Jolani, the Golan Heights is Personal
While al-Jolani stated that he is willing to discuss peace with Israel, the devil is in the details. Any normalization talks between Syria and Israel will likely succeed or fail on the issue of the Golan Heights.
Any peace deal should allow Israel to retain the entire Golan Heights, including: 1) the western part that Israel captured from Syria after the latter was one of the instigators of the 1967 Six Day War, and that Israel later annexed in 1981 and the first Trump administration recognized as part of Israel in 2019, plus 2) the eastern part held by Israel since December 2024 following the fall of Assad, including Mt. Hermon and nine new Israeli army posts.
Mt. Hermon is possibly one of the most strategically valuable locations in the entire Middle East, allowing Israel to see into Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The Golan Heights in its entirety also serves as a strong natural buffer for Israel against jihadis at its border, be they from a resurgent ISIS in southern Syria, or the new Syria itself should al-Jolani and his associates choose to further tap into their jihadist pedigrees.
Israel’s connection to the Golan has ancient roots, referred to as “Bashan” in the Hebrew Bible (Deuteronomy 4:43, Joshua 21:27), and includes the famous Gamla to which Rome laid siege in 67 BC, and ancient, pre-Arab conquest towns of Devora, Kanaf, Yehudiya, Pik, and Ein Nashut.
In contrast, Syria is a modern country created ex nihilo in 1945, which had possession of most of the Golan for a short period (1945-1967) relative to modern Israel. Before this, the Golan was part of the French (1923-1945), jointly administered French-British (1917-1923), and the Ottoman empires.
For al-Jolani, the Golan is personal. The Golan Heights is part of al-Jolani’s origins story — he stated in a Frontline documentary that his family had been displaced from there during the 1967 Six-Day War, and he later took the name al-Jolani, sometimes written as al-Golani, which references the Golan Heights. So it is unlikely that al-Jolani would agree to part with any of it.
Persecution of Ethnic Minorities Continues
The United States may also want to rethink how favorably it treats Syria, given reports of persecution of the Alawites, Christians, and Druze. The Biden administration expressed concerns about attacks on the Alawites, and the Trump administration has condemned attacks on minorities within Syria as well. Israel has set up a field hospital to help Druze and Sunnis in Southern Syria, and Syria’s opposition to such aid raises the question of whether it truly wants peace with Israel (as well as with its own population).
While certain developments in Syria are positive, Syria will continue to antagonize the United States and Israel through its continued harboring of jihadists, a likely intransigent position on the Golan Heights, and its continued persecution of ethnic minorities. The new Syrian regime needs to reform significantly before a durable peace with the United States and Israel is possible.
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