For nearly half a century, the Middle East has been defined by a single overarching reality: the Iranian threat. Since 1979, the ayatollahs’ growing influence, nuclear program, and destabilizing activities have shaped regional dynamics more than perhaps any other factor. An entire generation has grown up accepting periodic clashes and proxy conflicts as the natural order, with Iran’s tentacles reaching Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza, always threatening Israel and pragmatic Arab nations alike.
This vision of normalization could entail Arab League countries treating Israel like they would any other country in the world, rather than as a pariah state.
The Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, along with Iran’s strengthening nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, starkly demonstrated how acute this danger had become. Some members of the Iran-led axis believed their dream of annihilating Israel and dominating the Middle East was about to come true. None of them was prepared for the extent to which their own dominoes would get knocked to the ground one after the other: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, and most recently, Iran’s own nuclear capabilities and air defenses.
These changes have fundamentally altered the strategic landscape, bringing the Middle East to an unprecedented inflection point. What seemed all but impossible yesterday — full normalization between Israel and its Arab neighbors, including Syria and Lebanon — now appears within reach.
These developments may also produce a fundamental shift in what the roadmap to normalization could look like. Up to now, the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, have been the template for normalization, modeling a process that kicked off with formal agreements and diplomatic recognition between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. But the 12-day war with Iran has shown that the Abraham Accords order of operations — first a formal agreement and then cooperation — doesn’t have to be the only pathway to peace and security.
Instead, the highly public demonstration of American and Israeli military capability has shown itself to be a critical first step. Arab countries now recognize Israel’s security power following its decisive campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah, and most significantly, Iran itself. They see the benefits of normalization not just in abstract terms, but as concrete security advantages gained in part from the erosion of the Iranian threat to the region.
This creates a new pathway to regional integration, beginning with mutual security understandings and later moving to economic, technological, health, and civil infrastructure cooperation, eventually culminating in full diplomatic normalization and true partnerships — whether related to diplomacy, technology, sustainability, transportation, or economics — that would benefit the entire region. This progression builds trust incrementally. The first steps are already emerging, even with countries that have maintained hostile relations with Israel up to now.
Take Syria and Lebanon, neither of which looked to be likely near-term partners to Israel in late 2023. Yet now there is hope for the early stages of an end to the long-running conflict. In Lebanon, free from Iranian and Syrian dominance, Israel’s cease-fire agreement could evolve into commitments to disarm Hezbollah.
With the Assad regime gone, Syria presents even greater opportunities, such as possible understandings that spell out Syrian obligations to prevent terrorists from deploying on its territory, especially in areas that border Israel, or commitments to block weapon transfers to Lebanon or the Palestinian territories. In return, once the Syrian government proves its ability to deliver on its promises, Israel could gradually withdraw from most of the Syrian side of the Golan Heights that the Israeli army has taken over since the end of 2024.
The next level of progress could be financial and civil engagement, such as Israeli support of continued U.S. lifting of sanctions on Syria and Israeli involvement in Syria’s reconstruction, along with an understanding that Syria will respect the rights of its minorities, including the Druze, a community that also lives in northern Israel. Progress in Israel’s relations with Syria and Lebanon would be groundbreaking because up to now they have been enemy countries.
On the other end of the spectrum are Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Oman, which already have working relationships with Israel and could move toward full diplomatic relations that could encompass cooperation on trade and diplomacy on issues like Red Sea shipping, as well as increased travel, business, and collaboration on technological and infrastructure projects, like Saudi Arabia’s futuristic city Neom.
This vision of normalization could entail Arab League countries treating Israel like they would any other country in the world, rather than as a pariah state — allowing the Middle East to flourish instead of being held back by repeated flash points of violence. And it could even extend beyond the strict definitions of the Middle East, including North African countries like Tunisia and non-Arab Muslim countries like Indonesia.
The optimism unleashed by the dramatic change in Iran’s role must be channeled toward building a more stable, prosperous Middle East — a neighborhood where the neighbors ring the doorbell and pop by for a chat rather than one where guard dogs constantly bark and periodically bite. That vision requires Washington to help Israel maintain its qualitative military edge and for both the U.S. and Israel to stay on the lookout for signs that Iran may be rebuilding its nuclear or ballistic missile programs.
There are still many obstacles ahead — not least the persistent power of radical ideologies — and the pace of progress may require some patience. The more coordinated Israel and the U.S. are on issues like ending the war in Gaza, including the removal of Hamas from power and the release of the remaining hostages, and reaching a deal with Iran that would guarantee it won’t resume its malign activities, the faster the region will be able to move toward a new era of normalization.
European countries with historical Middle Eastern interests and emerging players like India, which seeks efficient routes to Europe and America via the Persian Gulf, could also join the push toward normalization, increasing the pressure to embrace this new friendlier era of Middle East neighborliness.
Recovered Hamas documents show that Hamas’ vicious October 7 attack was designed to halt peace talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia — a strategic objective that would have advanced the goal of regional isolation. Yet the ultimate irony is that the massacre set into motion the decline of Iran itself, as well as its Hamas and Hezbollah proxies and the toppling of the Assad regime — creating unprecedented opportunities for exactly the normalization Tehran sought to prevent.
Now it’s up to Israel, the Arab states, and all countries that support a peaceful and prosperous Middle East to step up and turn an unimaginable opportunity into a tangible reality.
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Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired Israeli brigadier general, leads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. He is a former head of the research division of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence directorate and director-general of the Israeli Ministry of Strategic Affairs.