This has been a light year for major elections in the West, but Poland currently offers more than its share of political theater. The country will hold parliamentary elections on Oct. 15. At stake is the direction of a country that is an increasingly significant economic, political, and military power in Europe and has been almost uniquely willing (along with Hungary) to contest European Union policy dogma.

The conservative ruling party, Law & Justice (PiS), is seeking its third term in government, though such a prospect almost certainly will require a coalition partner. Its primary rival, Civic Coalition (KO), the key constituent part of which previously governed as an establishment-right party, has migrated to the vacant establishment-left space. In the first-past-the-post Senate, KO already directs a coalition with the Left party and centrist Third Way (TD) to stem PiS ambitions. The other key player is Confederation, which has pressured PiS from the right.

Migration is on Polish minds. On paper, this should benefit PiS, which stormed to power in 2015 after its predecessors (essentially KO) agreed to compulsory EU migrant redistribution. Poland joined Hungary in rejecting the EU’s latest migration pact this summer (five countries abstained). The government scheduled a referendum to coincide with the elections and two of its four questions related to migration. Opposition parties protested vociferously. The country’s southern border is confronting renewed pressure from migrants pressing toward Germany. 

Yet, an unspoken truth has emerged as a major campaign issue: PiS has overseen vastly increased levels of legal migration from the developing world while publicly condemning the illegal variety.

PiS Struggles to Retain Geopolitical Support

This isn’t a particularly new development. In 2020, the Economist extolled the sight of Warsaw cricket matches of Uber Eats drivers from the Indian subcontinent. Confederation has long criticized the government on this topic.  

Last month, reports emerged to suggest Polish consulate officials in Africa and Asia have been issuing visas for bribes. And now, just weeks before the elections, critics of the PiS immigration record can assign faces and names to their criticism. After initially slamming PiS for its hypocrisy, KO politicians and supporters have shifted to the humanitarianism angle that characterizes such debates in the West. That a KO-led government would usher in even higher levels of migration is a poorly kept secret. Thus, opposition-friendly network TVN has set up shop outside the Polish consulate in Uganda, with anguished faces and emotional posters aplenty.

The sentiment has extended to the celebrity realm. Award-winning director Agnieszka Holland premiered the nakedly political Green Border less than a month before election day. It examines the plight of migrants ferried (voluntarily) from the Middle East to the Poland-Belarus border by the Belarusian regime and the activists who advocate their admission. In a blow to the democratic-backsliding narrative, a Polish court ruled in favor of Holland in a defamation spat with the Minister of Justice.

The eastern border of international interest, of course, straddles not Belarus but Ukraine. Poland has been a darling of the international community since Russia’s invasion, but that always figured to subside as elections approached.  

EU nations bordering Ukraine have struggled with grain dumping in domestic markets. The government is politically compelled to address the issue, as the region closest to Ukraine is a bastion of PiS support. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said, “It is alarming to see how some in Europe… play out solidarity in a political theater — making a thriller from the grain,” a remark that met with Polish consternation.  “I want to tell President Zelensky never to insult Poles again,” replied Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Pundits soon seized on Morawiecki’s statement: “We no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming Poland.” This was taken out of context, as President Andrzej Duda clarified the following day. Journalists were keen on the story, and the sharp Morawiecki should have known better. Meaningful changes to Poland’s Ukraine policy are likely only if Confederation plays a key role in government.

Canada’s disastrous Ukraine virtue-signaling effort, the parliamentary celebration of SS Galizien veteran Yaroslav Hunka, has carried over to Polish politics, as Warsaw is seeking the 98-year-old’s extradition. The move is more likely to embarrass Canada than impact Polish voter behavior. 

KO leader Donald Tusk, a former prime minister and President of the European Council, also has a flare for the dramatic. This past weekend, he orchestrated a pro-abortion march bizarrely named the “March of a Million Hearts” to great adulation from Western media. This followed four months after his similar “Lex Tusk” rally this summer. 

As with the June march, the debate in Poland hinged on the number of participants. Western media unquestioningly reported Tusk’s claim of roughly one million demonstrators. Warsaw police and some local journalists reported 100,000. Some noted the impossibility of one million demonstrators in a relatively small section of this city of 1.9 million.

1/ Cała populacja Warszawy to 1,9 mln osób. Serio ponad połowa tej wartości zmieściła między Rondem Dmowskiego a Radosława? Tak twierdzi Ratusz. Byłem w mieście. Przy milionowej demonstracji powinno być całe zalane ludźmi aż po odległe dzielnice.

— Michał Kuź (@michalkuz) October 1, 2023

Tusk also recently promised to facilitate gender-recognition protocols and introduce same-sex unions, a peculiar tactic in Polish politics. In neighboring Slovakia — less politically conservative and Catholic than Poland — potential coalition partners of the Progressive Slovakia party balked over its leftist social views in the leadup to their own recent election. Clearly, Tusk advisers believe there are key votes to be had on the left. 

There is also foreign patronage to be had. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has commented numerous times about the visa scandal. Pro-government figures have accused him of meddling and pointed out the irony of a German leader condemning reckless migration policy.  Underlying this issue is the long-running PiS assertion that Tusk is more concerned with German priorities than Poland’s welfare.  

Foreign meddling from Europe’s macro- and micro-states has also been on display. President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has openly stated her desire that Tusk regain the prime minister role. A Brussels correspondent and former Polish prime minister assert France and Germany have promised Ukraine EU membership in return for helping defeat PiS. The Vatican’s screening of Holland’s film defies description as an apolitical act.  

Poland’s Economy Plays a Short-Term Role in the Election

Meddling accusations levied against the government tend to be domestic in nature. Opposition figures accuse state oil giant Orlen of manipulating gas prices before the election, an accusation the firm denies.  It has implored consumers not to hoard fuel, and observers have noted Czechs crossing the border to fill up their tanks.

This issue perhaps encompasses voter priorities more than all the hot-button controversies. A short-term view of the economy could favor the opposition, as Poland has succumbed to the immense inflation pressures ravaging the region. A long-term view benefits PiS, as Poland’s economic vitality over the last decade has been widely documented. “When people are asked here, they say they may not like the politics, but life is better than it was before Law & Justice,” said Aleksandra Rybińska, a Polish journalist and think-tank analyst.  

Polls suggest the outcome is truly a tossup. Permutations abound. A poor result from one of the small parties could prove an enormous boon to one of the top two.  

“Who finishes third will decide victory in these elections,” said Szymon Hołownia, a TD co-leader. “First and second place have symbolic meaning.”  

If either potential bloc can form a majority government (no sure thing), it could hinge on one or two seats. Poland, it seems, is as deeply divided as much of the West. So far, just one ingredient is missing: neither side is warning of voting irregularities.

Michael O’Shea is a visiting fellow at the Danube Institute. He is an alumnus of the Budapest Fellowship Program, sponsored by the Hungary Foundation and the Mathias Corvinus Collegium.  He is a dual citizen of the United States and Poland. Twitter/X: @Michael_F_OShea