The concept of deterrence is as old as war itself. We need only to look back at George Washington’s farewell address to find the thought that the best way to preserve peace is to prepare for war. The saying dates back to ancient Rome.
That’s what deterrence is: for an adversary to be constrained in its eagerness for war by the proofs of our military strength. The problem is that the threat of our military has to be credible. With respect to the Houthis of Yemen, they should believe us credible more than twice over.
Maybe we can’t deter the Houthis. We know that the Houthis’ Iranian bosses are not susceptible of deterrence.
Last week the Houthis attacked and sank two Greek-owned ships in the Red Sea. The attackers reportedly used large boats, anti-ship missiles, and drones. The ships’ crews reportedly defended themselves but none of the navies supposedly protecting Red Sea shipping — the U.S., UK, Norway, Canada, Spain, Italy, and France among others — were in range of the attacked ships in time to save them.
Which makes the thought of all the air power we have in the zone — two carrier battle groups, one in the Red Sea itself — altogether incredible (as in lacking credibility).
By making last week’s attack, the Houthis broke the May 6 truce agreement they made with President Trump after the U.S. had attacked the Houthis and destroyed just about all of their air assets, including their only international airport and last remaining airliner. (That agreement didn’t include a Houthi agreement to not attack Israel. Two Houthi ballistic missiles were launched at Israel last Thursday. Both were intercepted.)
The May ceasefire should have brought the Houthis to a realization that they obviously can’t win a war with the U.S., even a small one. But how do you deter a nation — even a so-called “rebel” group such as the Houthis — who refuse to live up to their commitments even after such a devastating attack?
We could try to wipe out the Houthis and their influence in Yemen but we’re Americans too reluctant to do it. We could bomb their presidential palace and reduce it to rubble but the Saudis did that in 2018. We could bomb their parliament. That would probably kill a lot of the Houthi leadership but wouldn’t guarantee any cessation of their attacks on Red Sea shipping. We could — by cyberwar — make it impossible for the Houthi government to function. Why we aren’t doing these things? Mr. Trump, as I have written elsewhere, is more interested in being remembered by history as a peacemaker.
Maybe we can’t deter the Houthis. We know that the Houthis’ Iranian bosses are not susceptible of deterrence. Perhaps they are so influential over the Houthis that the Houthis can’t be deterred. Perhaps they are so crazed by ideology that they can’t be convinced that we have the upper hand and they should no longer disturb the peace.
Or maybe the Houthis’ leadership, such as it is, believes itself to be so isolated and protected that its safety is assured. Or maybe they’re just too dumb to be deterred. I can’t say that no nation or terror group is too dumb to be deterred. The Houthis may be the exception which proves the rule.
Aside from the U.S. bombings in May, the Houthis should have been deterred by the U.S. B-2 attacks on Iran and the Israeli establishment of air superiority over much of Iran. But they weren’t.
None of the Houthis’ values can register in Western minds. We are, mostly, rational people and can calculate how any enemy could harm us. That’s the reason that China or Russia or North Korea don’t attack us. Is there a way to deter the Houthis from further attacks on shipping? There should be but there may not.
We could blockade the ports of Aden and Hodeidah but the Houthis know that such blockades can be waited out because we couldn’t sustain them for very long. And there are smaller ports from which attacks on shipping can be launched.
This is where President Trump has to enter the fray. He could threaten to destroy all of the shipping facilities in Aden or Hodeidah or both. That would cripple the Yemeni economy which depends almost entirely on oil exports for its ability to sustain the government.
The only problem with that idea is that Mr. Trump will have to live up to the threat if there is another attack on Red Sea shipping. His credibility, and the Houthis’ susceptibility to deterrence, may depend on a resumption of our bombing campaign against Houthi targets.
The Israelis have already suggested a joint resumption of military action against the Houthis. They suggest a broad coalition to take out the Houthis assets and they’re right. It’s not our shipping that the Houthis are attacking: it’s ships on their way to Europe. It’s long past time for the NATO nations to pull their weight.
But the question remains: how hard to we have to hit the Houthis to achieve the sort of deterrence we desire and are they even susceptible of it?
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