I woke up on Monday to the promising news that President Donald Trump had helped broker an end to the bloody border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia that has already killed 36 soldiers and civilians and displaced over 300,000 more civilians over the last five days. The border dispute, which dates to demarcation lines drawn a century ago by colonial France, erupted anew last Thursday when newly placed landmines buried along the border wounded five Thai soldiers. Monday’s unconditional ceasefire was scheduled to take effect at midnight. 

Sadly, I’d barely had the chance to digest the news before it was followed by grisly reports of a mass shooting at the Or Tor Kor open market in Bangkok. It seems that 61-year-old Noi Pradaen, an ex-Or Tor Kor security guard from Khong district, stormed into the open market, gun blazing. He killed four “fellow” security guards and a shopper before shooting himself in the head on a park bench outside the market. The murders appear to have been a “postal” response to unresolved personal issues, and Thai police have ruled out any direct links between Pradaen’s rampage and the border conflict.

So, is Thailand safe?

Gun violence is on the rise in Thailand. Firearms are readily accessible. In February 2020, in one of Thailand’s first reported mass shootings, a soldier killed 29 people and wounded 57 more in and around the city of Nahhon Ratchasima. Ten days later, a man murdered his ex-wife and colleague in a Bangkok shopping center. In October 2022, a former police officer stormed into a Nongbua Lamphu daycare center and killed 36 preschoolers, teachers, and bystanders before killing his wife and children. In October 2023, a 14-year old “mental patient” fired 40 rounds from a modified blank pistol into the Siam Paragon shopping mall, killing three and wounding four more.

This week’s Or Tor Kor slaughter is the latest in the on average one mass murder per year in Thailand, a figure that pales in comparison with headline-grabbing high-profile shootings here in America. Short hours after learning about the Or Tor Kor killings, I was assailed by the cacophony of news channels pushing “breaking news” of a mass shooting in a Manhattan skyscraper. A disgruntled lunatic, later identified as Shane Tamura, killed four people including two police officers, before killing himself.

Is Thailand safe?

The U.S. State Department has issued a Level 4 Do Not Travel Advisory for American citizens within 30 miles of the 500-mile Thai-Cambodia land border. The Level 4 advisory will likely be reduced if the ceasefire holds. There is still a Level 2 Exercise Increased Caution advisory in effect elsewhere. The Level 2 reflects concern that periodic civil unrest could escalate to armed conflict between Thai security services and Malay separatist insurgents in Thailand’s three southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat.

But against the backdrop of border conflicts and mass shootings, the current political reality in Thailand deals another card in the “Is it safe?” poker game. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended from office short weeks before the recent border violence. The scandal involved a leaked phone call between Shinawatra and former Cambodian Minister Hun Sen in which she vilified Thailand’s military leadership and lavished praise on Sen. Before stepping down, Shinawatra appointed herself to a cabinet position from which she could continue to exercise a political presence. Her suspension, continued presence in power, and the succeeding diplomatic kerfuffle are not portents for peace. 

But is Thailand safe? Probably not as safe as it was last June. And probably not as safe as it will be in another month or so if the Thai/Cambodian ceasefire holds, if the next mass shooting waits for next year, and the current political crisis doesn’t erupt into violence.