Biden’s weakness propels the Left and they drive him to extremism. This is the simple, self-reinforcing cycle that has put Biden in a box from which he cannot escape. By turning left at the outset, Biden has eroded his majority victory into a minority presidency.
[T]his Administration has now become thoroughly dependent on the Left and extremist in its policies.
Presidents who beat incumbents have historically done well themselves. America usually reelects its incumbent presidents, so when they turn on an incumbent it usually signals their commitment to a new course. Then, they stay the course. Wilson in 1912, FDR in 1932, Reagan in 1980, and Clinton in 1992: all beat elected incumbents, and all won reelection themselves.
Such a track record for those who toppled elected incumbents raises a question about Biden. How has he turned a 51.3 percent popular vote victory in 2020 into a minority position so quickly? According to Real Clear Politics’ April 1 average of national polling, Biden trails Trump 45.5-46.5 percent in a two-way race; 45.3-48.5 percent in battleground states (six of which he won four years ago); and 39.6-42 percent in a five-way race. (READ MORE from J.T. Young: Trump’s Three-Peat Foretells Nationwide Victory)
In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt split the Republican majority and gave the White House to Wilson; in 1932, the Depression doomed Hoover; in 1980, Carter’s “malaise” propelled Reagan; in 1992, Bush I’s reversal on not raising taxes and third-party candidate Ross Perot sent Clinton to victory; in 2020, a pandemic, nationwide lockdowns, a resulting economic plunge, and widespread civil unrest following George Floyd’s death, combined against Trump. What has Biden done? Biden turned left.
From the beginning, Biden turned away from America and went toward America’s Left. Immediately, Biden reversed all the means Trump had used to close the southern border. Abroad, he shamefully and precipitously withdrew from Afghanistan. Fiscally, he fully opened the spending spigot and demanded higher taxes in return. And so, it continued.
On issue after issue, Biden has taken positions that have appeased the Left but alienated America’s majority. And what Biden has done at the national level, his Party has echoed at the state and local levels they control — bringing insecurity to the American people’s doorstep.
As Biden did this, he also created a self-reinforcing cycle. As Biden alienated moderate support (a constituency he claimed to represent in 2020), he shrank his base of support. The result has been that even if the Left did not increase absolutely within Democrat ranks (though they certainly appear to have done so), their influence within Biden’s shrunken base has grown.
As the Left grew within Biden’s base, they carried more weight; as Biden’s base shrank, he became more dependent on them. The dynamics fed on each other. The result was an impetus to extremism.
After three-plus years of this cycle of ascendancy (Left) and dependency (Biden), this Administration has now become thoroughly dependent on the Left and extremist in its policies. Looking back on today’s polling numbers, Biden’s base of support is little more than the 37 percent of voters who claimed to be Democrats in 2020, exit polling. RCP’s April 1 average of national job approval polling stands at 40.3 percent.
Among modern presidents, only Jimmy Carter in his one term has come close to pulling off Biden’s self-immolation. However, even Carter’s conflagration was less than Biden’s present presidential pyre.
Carter defeated Gerald Ford, who while the nominal incumbent was the only man in American history to have not been elected either vice president or president (having been appointed by Nixon and then shortly thereafter assuming the presidency after Nixon resigned in disgrace).
Shrouded by Watergate, his pardon of Nixon, and high inflation, Ford still nearly won in 1976: less than 1.7 million votes separated the two candidates and Carter won only 50.08 percent of the popular vote. So, Carter never benefited from the repudiation of an elected incumbent the way Biden did. (READ MORE: Biden Would Go Further Left)
As president, Biden has taken positions inexplicable to Americans who are not of the Left. And what is more, he has inexplicably stuck with them — unless we understand that he cannot repudiate these positions without losing the irreplaceable support of the Left on which his presidency now depends.
Any other president holding such unpopular positions would have changed them. Another president would have closed the border, released a budget that did not spend and tax to the extreme, would push LNG exports — not pause permitting — and claim this as an economic win, and would call for a crackdown on crime.
Biden can’t. He needs every last vote from the Left, because the Left is the only place he can hope to find votes. What America is witnessing is a study in self-immolation as it burns down Biden’s presidency.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001–2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004–2023.