President Joe Biden tried to buy reelection; what he got was inflation and perhaps stagflation. Entering office vulnerable electorally and economically, Biden pursued massive spending to shore up both. While he secured his Left, he undermined the economy. Ironically, the economic prosperity Biden tried to buy may cost him the reelection he sought to ensure.

Beneath Biden’s 2020 victory lurked insecurity that rested on the historical, the ideological, and the economic.

Biden’s presidential win was far narrower than it appeared. Despite Biden winning over 7 million more votes than Donald Trump and by 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent, those extra 7 million votes came from California (5.1 million) and New York (1.9 million). He won six pivotal states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) by just under 312,000 votes; he won Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin by less than 77,000 votes: Had he lost them, Biden would have also lost the election.

That it was close was not surprising. Biden’s double-digit lead in the polls, which RealClearPolitics’ average of national polling had at 10.3 percent as late as Oct. 11, was down to 7.2 percent in its last preelection calculation. Weakness in Biden’s support was nothing new: Going back to RCP’s last poll average during the Democrats’ nomination battle, fully one-third of Democrats were still backing Sanders (Biden led 60.8 percent to 32 percent).

Earlier in 2020’s nomination contest, Biden had appeared all but dead before his campaign was resurrected in South Carolina. Going back to 2016, despite being vice president, Biden had been passed over by Barack Obama for Hillary Clinton. Going back further still, Biden had crashed and burned early in Democrats’ 2008 and 1988 nomination contests.

That Biden would be electorally insecure — especially with the Democrats’ Left — isn’t surprising. He also had another reason for insecurity: the economy. The country was rocked by 2020’s pandemic lockdowns, and it was no mystery how weak economies treated presidents; his own victory was proof. If this wasn’t enough, he had only to look at previous defeated presidents — Herbert Hoover (1932), Gerald Ford (1976), Jimmy Carter (1980), George H.W. Bush (1992) — all of whom had economic downturns within a year of losing.

His electoral position weaker and the economy still tenuous, Biden needed to shore up both. His solution has been to spend. Doing so would appease his Left and force enough federal largesse to avoid an economic downturn. Simply, Biden would buy loyalty and prosperity.

So, Biden spent … and spent. Based on Congressional Budget Office figures for 2021–2023 and estimates for 2024, Biden will have spent $7.9 trillion above 2019’s spending level. He will have run $7.4 trillion in deficits, and federal debt will have reached $27.9 trillion, 99 percent of GDP.

What Biden didn’t foresee was how fast — or how long — inflation would follow his spending. In January 2021, inflation (CPI-U) was 1.4 percent; by June, 5.4 percent; by December, 7 percent. Peaking at 9.1 percent in June 2022, it didn’t reach 3 percent until June 2023. It’s not gone below that and instead has increased each of the last three months — hitting 3.5 percent in the latest reading.

The Federal Reserve responded to Biden’s inflation with 11 interest rate hikes, taking them from effectively 0 percent to a 20-year high of over 5.25–5.50 percent.

Americans were trapped. To offset Biden-flation’s rising prices, they spent down savings. Their pandemic savings gone, they began borrowing. By last October, GAO reported U.S. credit card debt hitting a new record, surpassing $1 trillion. It hasn’t stopped. Now, high interest rates locking Americans out of mortgages (also making housing a further big inflation driver) mean high debt service too.

With inflation and interest rates remaining high, Americans are squeezed. Against this vise, Biden’s administration has touted big-picture economic growth numbers — 2023’s 4.9 percent in Q3 and 3.4 percent in Q4. The hope was that overall economic growth could outrun continuing inflation and begin making headway against its three years’ cumulative price pressures.

Then came last month’s report that GDP only grew 1.6 percent in 2024’s Q1 — the slowest growth since the economy shrank consecutively in 2022’s Q2 and Q1. Rather than relief, it signaled a stagflation moment: high inflation and low growth. The light at the end of the tunnel turned out to be a train.

Biden used uncontrolled federal spending to buy reelection. It worked to appease the Left politically: Unlike 2016 and 2020, Sanders did not run. But economics has proven trickier than politics. Since Biden’s term began, inflation has undermined the economy Americans live, while its interest rate hikes have further raised their living costs.

In response to America’s bottom-line problems, Biden’s administration can only offer topline statistics to explain away why Americans feel the crush they do. In pursuit of the macro, Biden lost sight of the micro. Ironically, in pursuit of the economy, he lost the electorate.

J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004 to 2023.