A former member of the Obama State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, writing in Foreign Affairs, has called for President Joe Biden to offer Russia what Woodrow Wilson offered Germany after World War I.
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Max Bergmann, currently at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, urges Biden to offer the Russian people “a path out of the economic and diplomatic isolation from the West” by ridding themselves of Vladimir Putin the way Germans rid themselves of Kaiser Wilhelm II at the end of World War I. “President Joe Biden,” Bergmann writes, “should outline what a post-Putin Russia could look like, just as President Woodrow Wilson formulated a vision for postwar Germany in 1918.” Perhaps Bergmann has forgotten how Wilson’s postwar diplomacy helped set into motion events that led to Hitler’s rise to power and World War II.
Wilson, Bergmann writes, offered Germany a “just peace” with no annexations and no punitive sanctions, which Bergmann believes played a role in Germany’s military leaders “initiat[ing] regime change” that eventually led to the creation of the Weimar Republic. Biden should make a similar offer to Russians and Russian military leaders: Get rid of Putin and we will offer you a “just peace” that includes Russia’s complete withdrawal from Ukraine, Russia’s pledge to respect Ukraine’s independence and reduce tensions with Western powers, Russia’s acceptance of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union and NATO, and the prosecution of Russian war criminals.
Bergmann acknowledges that Biden’s interference in Russia’s internal affairs and calls for regime change could “exacerbate [Putin’s] paranoia, seemingly confirming that the United States is out to depose him and exploiting cracks in his regime.” Bergmann’s proposals, he admits, could prolong the war in Ukraine and possibly result in its escalation. But Bergmann assures us that “Putin isn’t suicidal” and does not want to “enter a world-ending conflagration.” And although Bergmann also acknowledges that “anti-Western sentiment” in Russia “runs deep,” he views the recent Prigozhin–Wagner Group affair as an indication that Russia’s military and political elite may be willing to bring an end to Putin’s rule, especially if the war takes a turn for the worse in Russia.
Bergmann wants the U.S. and the West to ensure that the war takes a turn for the worse for Russia by our “unwavering resolve to support Ukraine.” He hopes that continued Russian losses with no victory in sight will cause further rebellion among Russia’s military and political elite. But Biden’s pledge of a “just peace” will hopefully weaken Russia’s “hardliners” and bring to power moderate Russian nationalists.
Of course, Bergmann must be aware that Wilson’s actual postwar diplomacy resulted in a weak Weimar Republic and a disgruntled German military who blamed the politicians for Germany’s defeat, though he mostly blames the French and the British for the rise of the Nazi Party. Wilson’s vision that Bergmann wants Biden to emulate, however, may instead of undermining Putin’s rule make him stronger or, conversely, lead to a military coup that could end up widening and escalating the current regional war in Europe. Wilson did not end up making the world safe for democracy. Instead, he set the stage for a global war that nearly ended democracy.
Winston Churchill in The Gathering Storm once called Russian policy a “riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma,” but the key, he said, was Russian national interests. Russian national interests — whether Putin is in power or not — include a Ukraine that is not part of a hostile military alliance. Any settlement that places Ukraine in NATO may, like the peace that ended World War I, be only a prelude to a greater conflict in the future.
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