Joe Biden is in big trouble. If the election were held today, he would undoubtedly lose. Donald Trump has been ahead in the polls consistently since October. That’s unprecedented for Trump across eight years of polling. In 2016 and 2020, he almost always trailed Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Not anymore. 

Quite remarkably, because of Trump’s strength in battleground/swing states, he merely needed to come within about 2 percent of Hillary and Biden in the overall popular vote and still win the Electoral College. But if Trump in 2024 manages to win the popular vote outright, then Joe Biden has no chance in the Electoral College. None, nada, niente. And according to the polls, Trump will do just that if the numbers remain consistent from the fall of 2023 to the fall of 2024 — right up to Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. 

As of Tuesday, RealClearPolitics has Trump leading Biden by 1.2 percent in a head-to-head race and by 2.7 percent in a five-way race that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is having major success getting on the ballot in state after state. As I’ve noted here, there’s debate over whether RFK Jr. hurts Trump more than Biden, but the numbers consistently show Trump increasing his overall vote margin when Kennedy is included in the race. 

Of course, all this depends on whether the numbers remain in Trump’s favor through November. However, there’s a crucial indicator that they will remain in Trump’s favor — or, at least, in Biden’s disfavor. To that end, I want to share four important numbers tracked by RealClearPolitics that lately have registered a dismal new low for Biden.

Last weekend, RCP showed a disastrous number for Joe Biden, namely, an approval rating of 39.2 percent. Yes, that means that Biden has fallen under 40 percent (when I last checked on Tuesday, it was 39.5 percent). I can’t overstate the significance of that dubious figure. As a presidential historian, I can tell you that since reliable polling began, when an incumbent president slips below 40 percent approval, especially in his fourth year — his reelection year — he’s in big trouble.

I wrote a piece during the Obama era titled “The 40-Percent President,” in which I noted how I daily tracked President Barack Hussein Obama’s favorability rating, waiting for it to drop under 40 percent. Other than a few fleeting occasions, it almost never went under 40 percent. Joe Biden, however, is now under 40 percent.

And, yet, here are the most significant numbers that spell Biden’s doom. It’s a set of four foreboding figures posted on RealClearPolitics last weekend. They’re the approval ratings of the most recent four presidents at this point in their fourth/reelection year:

Biden 39.2 percent

Trump 44.7 percent

Obama 48.2 percent

Bush 47.7 percent

Look at those numbers. Or, if you’re Team Biden, read ’em and weep.

In the case of George W. Bush and Obama, both incumbent presidents were reelected in their respective coming Novembers even with those approval numbers under 50 percent. Frankly, Obama’s approval was weak enough at several points in 2012 that many of us thought that Republican nominee Mitt Romney could beat him that November. But the Obama turnout, especially among black voters, was overwhelming, particularly against an underwhelming Romney turnout that was not energized by an enthusiastic Republican/conservative base.

But, still, the point is this: Obama managed to get reelected even with that under–50 percent approval rating, as did Bush in 2004.

By contrast, note Donald Trump’s approval rating at this point in his fourth year. It was 44.7 percent. And he lost.

That brings us to Biden at 39.2 percent approval, way below Bush and Obama and even Trump in 2020. If that number holds, Joe Biden is toast in November.

As in every election, turnout is key. Biden does not have an enthusiastic base, though he didn’t in 2020 either. The pivotal factor once again will be whether Donald Trump can drive to the polls more people who like him rather than revile him. That’s actually an open question.

But, for now, those four figures for the most recent four presidents are quite foreboding for Joe Biden.