On Wednesday, 133 cardinal electors will enter the Sistine Chapel to elect the 267th pontiff of the Catholic Church. What on earth will happen remains known only to heaven. After two weeks of debate, discussion, politicking, and gossiping, predictions on who will emerge on the Loggia of the Blessings of St. Peter’s Basilica are even more divided.
By the day, talk increases that the initial frontrunners are stalling. At the same time, reports emerge of cardinals who are gaining steam among the College.
Upon Pope Francis’s death, Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle emerged as the progressive standard-bearer. But the coalition he had built began to deteriorate when some progressives moved toward American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, only for his candidacy to seemingly crumble within days. 82-year-old Honduran Cardinal Óscar Rodríguez Maradiaga, who advocated for Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio (who became Pope Francis) in the 2013 conclave, had, according to Italian media outlets, taken up Cardinal Prevost’s cause. But the Italian publication Il Fatto Quotidiano reported Monday that Maradiaga had left Rome with a sense of “bitterness,” having apparently given up his effort to push for Prevost. Il Fatto Quotidiano quoted Maradiaga as saying that many of the former supporters of Pope Francis had become “turncoats.” Apparently, Maradiaga had been upset at having to witness many interventions at the general congregations that offered criticisms of Pope Francis’s papacy.
Speculated to be Plan C options among progressives are French Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, Spanish Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, and Filipino Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David.
At the same time, it has been reported that some of Cardinal Luis Tagle’s Asian supporters would turn their support to the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s Fridolin Ambongo Besungu rather than the progressives’ choice, in the event that Tagle’s candidacy foundered. Ambongo Besungu has possibly gained some ground among other cardinals in the Global South in recent days.
The other frontrunner, in the more moderate lane, is Cardinal Pietro Parolin. Parolin made waves when, at the Synod on Synodality, he spoke out in defense of doctrinal orthodoxy. The argument for Parolin is that he would right the ship and bring stability to the Church after the chaos of Pope Francis. Yet he was instrumental in the largely criticized deal with Beijing over the appointment of bishops and has now become associated with some of the Vatican’s financial scandals. The Italian publication La Repubblica reports that Parolin will, in all likelihood, be the candidate with the most votes in the first round of the conclave. Still, it has been suggested that Parolin has been losing support since the beginning of the general congregations rather than gaining ground.
Conservative cardinals have reportedly been gathering, to some extent, around Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, but whether he can garner the necessary support seems less likely.
A man must receive the votes of 89 cardinal electors in order to be elected the next pope. Thus, it seems possible that the candidacies of the frontrunners could each reach a ceiling of support, requiring the cardinal electors to go looking elsewhere.
Names of those who could possibly reach this two-thirds majority are being thrown out at the last minute.
Cardinal Fernando Filoni, 79, the grand master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre, is one such man. Filoni is a longtime Vatican diplomat and bureaucrat who gained fame for his bravery while acting as the papal ambassador in Iraq. Likewise being considered is 73-year-old Cardinal Dominique Mamberti, who most recently served as prefect of the Apostolic Signatura for over a decade and who previously was a Vatican diplomat. Cardinal Mamberti is set to announce the next pope as the protodeacon of the College of Cardinals.
Other men with a more moderate reputation could also emerge. This includes Myanmar’s Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa, and Sweden’s Cardinal Anders Aborelius — all of whom are cardinals presently engaged as shepherds of their own flock. (Italian media outlets have noted that Pizzaballa, who is daily among the first cardinals to arrive at the general congregations, has been one of the cardinals who has been most flocked by the press.)
One notable factor could be the bloc of 23 Asian cardinals. In an interview Tuesday with La Repubblica, Tokyo Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi said, “[W]e Asians will most likely be more united to support one or two candidates.”
According to Matteo Bruni, the director of the Holy See Press Office, the first smoke will emerge from the Sistine Chapel no earlier than 7 p.m. Rome time, or 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
READ MORE:
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Some Progressive Cardinals Express Displeasure With Pre-Conclave Meetings