Trump’s popularity could grow because his agenda is more popular than he is. While this sounds counterintuitive, it is just common sense. If Trump successfully implements his agenda, his popular policies’ performance could raise him with them. Congressional Republicans should heed this because both Trump and his policies are more popular than they are.
From any perspective, Donald Trump is the most popular Republican in 20 years. His popular vote victory is Republicans’ first since George W. Bush’s in 2004 and his 74.2 million votes received is the most ever by a Republican. This was the third consecutive election where he increased his percentage of the popular vote—even FDR did not do that.
During his time on the presidential stage, Trump has dramatically increased his favorability with the public. Yes, as of January 7, his overall rating is still negative, 47.9% to 48.6%. However, his 0.7% deficit is the lowest of any of the national politicians measured by Real Clear Politics’s average.
Astounding is the only word to describe the growth in Trump’s favorability: in July 2015, it was 22.7%; in December 2022, it was 36.6%; and a year ago it was 40.3%. The point is: While Trump’s popularity may seem stagnant—always more unpopular than popular—it is anything but.
As impressive as his popularity growth has been, Trump could grow more popular still. The reason is that his agenda is more popular than he is.
For proof, look at Biden’s job performance rating. On January 7, Biden’s overall disapproval rating was 56.8%. His ratings on specific issues were lower still: on the economy, 58.8%; on foreign policy, 60%; on immigration, 63%; on inflation, 63.8%; and on crime, 58.3%.
Trump ran against Biden, and then Harris, on all these issues. If Trump can turn campaign rhetoric into even a semblance of White House reality, he could reap a potentially significant upside. The “delta” between Trump’s favorability (47.9%) and Biden’s various disapprovals is large—roughly 9 percentage points at least.
If Trump could attain even half that “delta,” he would become even more politically formidable than he already is. With the painful Biden-Harris memory still fresh in most Americans’ minds, and with Democrats’ promised resistance to Trump offering an ongoing reminder, Trump will have stark points of contrast.
Democrats would do well to take careful note of these points. Even more so, congressional Republicans.
Recent House drama over Speaker Johnson’s reelection is a reminder that congressional Republicans’ greatest enemy is themselves. While the outcome (reelecting Johnson on the first ballot) was positive, the process (public debate and a holdout by a handful of members over what should have been a foregone conclusion) was negative.
For some reason, Republicans insist on making normal operations abnormally difficult. Mike Johnson had been their speaker last year; he was the overwhelming pick this year; Trump had endorsed him. That should have been the end of the discussion. Instead, for some, it was the beginning of one—one that would still be ongoing if they had their way.
The commander-in-chief is chosen, his battle plan is laid out, and the army assembled; it is now time to disband the circular firing squad that some incessantly insist on. Every decision cannot call for the convening of a council of war. Most require no more than shutting up and saluting.
According to a recent Economist/YouGov poll, Congress has an approval rating of 18%. Congress is unpopular for a reason. People see it as a debating society consumed with items irrelevant to their lives.
In addition to all the polls, members should remember another one: a totem pole. Like a totem pole, congressional majorities stand on the most vulnerable members. If those members at the bottom are removed, the totem pole grows shorter; eventually, it is no longer a majority. Succinctly, ideological purity equals political minority.
Without control of the House, Trump’s agenda grinds to a halt. Members must remember that they weren’t elected president; they were elected to implement the president’s agenda. They are a means, not the end.
The president determines the agenda and who he wants to lead its implementation. Congressional Republicans’ narrow majority demands unity; they cannot fight every fight, and they won’t win every fight they do fight, so they must fight the important ones—not each other.
They must appear able to govern. They have yet to do so. With two years of tripartite control, Republicans have the means to achieve much of Trump’s agenda. In doing so, they have the chance to not just raise Trump’s standing with the public, but their own as well.
J.T. Young is the author of “Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left” (RealClear Publishing). He has more than three decades of experience working in Congress, the Treasury Department, and the Office of Management and Budget, as well as representing a Fortune 20 company.