Nearly a century removed, the Republican president heralded his Democratic predecessor for “one of the most significant pieces of legislation ever signed into law,” the bill that created Social Security.
The program turned 90 this month. Without reform, its 100th anniversary is not guaranteed.
President Trump still heralded FDR for the program, created at the height of the Great Depression, and vowed in the Oval Office to preserve and improve it “for 90 years and beyond.” The president said this was his “sacred pledge to our seniors.” Had he not returned to the White House, Trump boasted, “Social Security was going to be destroyed.”
And true to his word, Trump has not meddled with senior benefits. His marquee legislation has, in fact, reduced their tax burden by making Social Security benefits tax-free. But the actuarial tables are less rosy than the president put on in front of the cameras.
According to new estimates from the program’s chief actuary, Karen Glenn, Social Security will not make it to its 100th birthday as things stand. Instead, the trust fund will be insolvent in just seven years. Money was expected to run out by the first quarter of 2033, but after the One Big Beautiful Bill became law and made benefits tax-free, that forecast was moved up slightly to the fourth quarter of 2032.
At that point, according to analysis by the Congressional Research Service, the federal government would have three options at the point: increase taxes, decrease benefits, or a combination of the two.
Trump, who will have joined the ranks of former presidents by then, seemed unconcerned with those predictions. “You keep hearing stories that ‘in six years, seven years, Social Security will be gone,’” he told reporters, “and it will be if the Democrats ever get involved because they don’t know what they’re doing.” So long as his party is in control, he promised, “it’s going to be around a long time with us.”
Despite accusations from the left, Republicans have been unwilling to touch the program despite the flashing fiscal warning lights. A political football during campaign season, the popular entitlement is an entrenched third rail on Capitol Hill.
The financial troubles of Social Security are not new. They have worsened through both Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Every single report published by the Social Security trustees since 1983, as the liberal Brookings Institution notes, has found that the program faces a shortfall. Confronting that fiscal cliff was once conservative orthodoxy.
Former President George W. Bush warned that Social Security was “headed toward bankruptcy.” Betting much of his legacy on the reform, the Republican proposed partial privatization and a provision allowing citizens to divert some of their taxes into investments. Ultimately, it was stillborn and never even received a vote in Congress. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney later proposed more modest reforms while running for president, like increasing the retirement age and reducing benefits for the wealthy, only to be pilloried on the campaign trail.
Despite warnings from Elon Musk, who described Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time” while still a member of the administration, Trump has shown no appetite for overhauling the program in its entirety. His administration has instead focused on making the bureaucracy more efficient while rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse.
Social Security Administrator Frank Bisignano has been at the helm of the agency for less than three months and arrived at the White House eager to give a report.
Customer service has improved; the average wait time is down from 30 minutes to six. New technology has gone live; seniors can now access information 24//7 online about their benefits. The backlog of disability claims has been reduced by 26% and 3.1 million payments were sent to beneficiaries months ahead of schedule.
To the delight of the president, more than a quarter of a million illegal immigrants have been removed from the system, and millions over the age of 100 have been removed from the rolls, though it is unclear if a majority of those deceased centenarians were still receiving payments.
After the modernization efforts are complete and fraud is addressed, Bisignano told reporters, “When we do all that, then we’ll really know the answer to if we have a hole.”
Some experts find that kind of assessment overoptimistic and stress that fraud is already comparatively rare in Social Security. “There is always room for improvement, especially when it comes to the disability program,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget concluded in a recent paper, “but fraud and abuse are rare in the Social Security program – certainly not large enough to make a significant difference in the program’s finances.”
A spokesperson for the Social Security Administration told RealClearPolitics that ensuring the long-term health of the trust fund remains “a top priority” and that Bisignano is committed to working with Congress, the White House, and other stakeholders to strengthen the program.
“During the Oval Office event today,” the spokesperson continued, “Commissioner Bisignano detailed some of the ways SSA is working to tackle waste, fraud, and abuse under President Trump’s leadership to ensure that the program can continue to thrive for the next 90 years.”
This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.