President Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war hit a snag over the weekend. Russia, China, and a variety of other world leaders met in the Chinese city of Tianjin over the weekend. India is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil. If Trump wants to starve the Russian war machine, he needs to build closer ties with India.
Before it invaded Ukraine, Russia sold much of its oil to the EU. Since then, Europe has had less of a desire to get its energy from Moscow. Therefore, Russia has diversified its sales to other customers. One of the biggest buyers has been India. There’s an old saying that an army only goes as far as its stomach. Expanding on that notion, if an army doesn’t have any money, it can’t afford to equip its army.
Oil and natural gas remain critical parts of the Russian economy, with almost 30% of the Russian government’s budget coming from energy sales. By wooing buyers away from Russia, the United States puts a huge dent in the ability of the Russian economy to fuel its war machine.
President Trump correctly noticed, and that is why he put higher tariffs on Indian imports to the US. Unfortunately for Trump, the tough love approach to India doesn’t seem to be working. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a call with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, demonstrating both countries’ commitment to their relationship. Tariffs and sanctions definitely should be tools in Trump’s arsenal, but he needs to remember who his counterpart is in New Delhi.
Modi has built a reputation as a strong nationalist, someone who won’t back down and let India get bullied. He demonstrated that in border clashes with China and currently in his faceoff with Trump over Russian oil. If President Trump wants to drive India out of Russia’s camp, he should consider less vinegar and more honey.
India is one of the most populous nations on earth and more and more has the economic might to match its size. To power its economic growth, India needs energy. With the war in Ukraine, India is more than willing to buy up Russian oil that is in less demand. Trump should consider this in negotiations with India. If he wants India to stop buying Russian oil, Trump needs to fill in the gap.
As a pro-oil administration, Trump needs to continue expanding US oil production to increase its competitiveness in the global oil market. Specifically, the US should make oil sales a huge part of its sales pitch to India. By making a trade deal, Trump could simultaneously take away one of Russia’s biggest customers while at the same time increasing US ties with one of the fastest-growing economies on Earth.
The war in Ukraine is not the only reason why Trump should pursue closer ties with India. For one, tighter economic ties would open doors for American companies to the 4th largest economy on Earth. A trade deal will help alleviate economic uncertainty in addition to being a potential source for friendshoring the manufacture of goods. Secondly, India could play a role in hemming in China. Russia is not the only global power sizing up its neighbors. Taking over Taiwan has been a goal of the Chinese government since the communists seized power in 1949. Friendlier relations with one of China’s neighbors add a hedge against Chinese expansionism.
One way to tighten military ties is through weapons sales. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, India has needed alternative sources of military equipment. The United States can fulfill that need while at the same time bringing India closer to the US.
India is not the only country to which this formula applies. Hungary, Turkey, and Japan are all buyers of Russian oil. All are US allies, with two (Hungary and Turkey) being members of NATO. What’s worse, both Hungary and Turkey have frighteningly close relationships with Russia, considering NATO exists in large part to protect its members from Russia. Taking some or all of Russia’s market share in supplying energy to these countries would go a long way in restoring our relationships with them and in countering Russia.
President Trump is gunning hard to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Should he succeed, Trump may very well win the Nobel Peace Prize. However, a peace deal is far from a sure thing. Even if it is agreed upon, history shows that Vladimir Putin is unlikely to abide by it. Just as likely, this is all a delay tactic by Putin as he seeks to continue his war with Ukraine. Therefore, President Trump needs to be prepared for that possibility. Even if peace is secured, there are good reasons why the US should pursue closer ties with India and many other countries.
Matt Cookson is an alumnus of the Young Voices Contributor Program and was a Middle East History and Policy Fellow with Young Voices. He also works in the supply chain for a U.S. Defense Contractor. His commentary has appeared in the Mises Institute, Real Clear Politics, the National Interest, Providence Magazine, China Source, and the Idaho Freedom Foundation. You can follow him on X @MattCookson95 and Substack @thewaythecookiecrumbles.
This article was originally published by RealClearWorld and made available via RealClearWire.