Although the stated purpose of today’s Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine, the meeting will also be an important demonstration of how Trump is restoring America’s leadership on the world stage and establishing himself as one of America’s most powerful and influential presidents.
Trump’s critics predictably claim Putin manipulated him with his proposal to hold a summit to stop the crippling energy sanctions that Trump was about to impose on Russia and to buy time to continue the war.
Putin may be planning to use the summit to manipulate Trump. If he does, I believe Trump will abruptly end the meeting and implement the energy sanctions. Indeed, Trump warned this week that there will be “severe consequences” if he determines Putin is not serious at the summit about ending the war. It is clear that in recent weeks, Trump has become increasingly angry with Putin for defying his diplomatic efforts to end the war. CNN reported on Wednesday that Trump’s anger with Putin was “palpable.”
Given Trump’s much-reported frustration with Putin and several decisive foreign policy moves by the president during his second term, especially Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, I believe Putin realizes that Trump will react harshly against Russia if he does not come to the summit ready to negotiate an end to the war or presses for demands that Trump views as unreasonable.
Trump is sure to encourage Putin to agree to a cease-fire. He will argue that he is the only leader on the world stage—now and in the foreseeable future—who will ever make the Russian leader a deal to halt the war that will end Russia’s isolation and restore Russia’s economy. This is consistent with Trump’s landmark speech in Saudi Arabia last May, when he said America should no longer have permanent enemies and that he wants to promote a new world order of global security through trade and prosperity.
Trump will also discuss other global issues with Putin on which the U.S. and Russia might cooperate, such as global trade, the Israel-Hamas war, Iran’s nuclear weapons program, North Korea, Arctic energy cooperation, and terrorism. Such discussions could be part of a broader deal to begin new U.S.-Russia partnerships on global security and economic matters.
Several Trump critics have criticized the summit as a “win” for Putin and an ill-advised concession by Trump that rewards Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. This claim is false. American and Russian presidents should meet and speak by phone frequently to promote good relations and global security. Trump believes U.S. presidents should meet with the leaders of all states, both friends and foes. This is good statesmanship. President Biden was at fault for causing U.S.-Russian relations to seriously deteriorate by not speaking to Putin after February 2022, even by phone. Instead, Biden constantly demonized Putin, including calling him a war criminal and likening the Russian leader to Hamas.
President Trump deserves credit for the extensive efforts he and his team have taken to consult with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders about the summit despite their strong reservations about the meeting and objections that they have been excluded.
Trump’s one-on-one meeting with Putin is reasonable. After all, Trump has met with Zelinsky and many European leaders one-on-one, some on multiple occasions. European leaders want to be at the summit because they don’t trust Trump and think they know better than him on how to deal with Putin. If this is true, one has to ask why Europe did nothing to end the war in Ukraine before Trump was elected. And why did French and British leaders never invite Putin for summits with them in London or Paris over the past three years to discuss a cease-fire in the Ukraine War?
In phone calls this week and a so-called “emergency” virtual summit on Wednesday, convened by Germany with European and Ukrainian leaders, President Trump and his national security team listened to their concerns about the Alaska summit. European leaders also outlined their red lines for the Alaska meeting: a cease-fire as a prerequisite for further talks; any territorial discussions must start from the current battle lines; security guarantees; Ukraine’s participation in the negotiations; and support from the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine for any peace deal.
European leaders and Zelensky reportedly were reassured after the virtual summit because Trump told them his objective for the Alaska summit will be to obtain a cease-fire. Trump also said Russia and Ukraine had to negotiate territorial issues: this would not be negotiated in Alaska. In addition, Trump said security guarantees would be part of a peace agreement.
Trump promised to call Zelensky immediately after the Alaska summit and, if this summit is successful, to hold a follow-up summit soon afterward with Putin and Zelensky and possibly European leaders.
There are major differences going into the Alaska summit between Putin and Zelensky on territory, Ukraine’s future in Europe, and Ukraine’s defense. Addressing these issues will require significant compromises by both sides to get a cease-fire or peace agreement. Trump will use the Alaska summit to assess whether Putin is prepared to make a peace deal that both sides can support. Some demands by Putin, such as Ukraine giving up land it controls in the Donbas to Russia or demilitarizing Ukraine, are unacceptable to Zelensky and will block any peace plan. Trump hopes his leadership, dealmaking skills, and good relationship with Putin will enable him to bridge these gaps to convince both sides to make the compromises necessary to end the war.
As President, Donald Trump has established himself as a powerful leader and one of history’s leading peacemakers, having brokered peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Cambodia and Thailand, Israel and Iran, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, India and Pakistan, Egypt and Ethiopia, Serbia and Kosovo, and with the Abraham Accords. NATO states agreed to increase their defense spending in response to Trump’s demands. Trump’s decision to bomb Iran stunned Iranian leaders and demonstrated decisive leadership by an American president that was sorely lacking during the Biden presidency.
Putin is facing a devastated economy, a ruinous war, and unprecedented diplomatic and economic isolation, as well as a competent and decisive American president who is offering his country a way out. Hopefully, Putin is traveling to Alaska because he has decided to take a chance with Trump and agree to end the war. If he doesn’t, there will be severe consequences for Russia and global security.
The summit might not be successful. Trump may walk away from a bad deal. But regardless of whether the summit succeeds or fails, this event is another sign of how the global leadership that President Trump is demonstrating indicates that his second term will be a historic and consequential presidency.
Fred Fleitz previously served as National Security Council chief of staff, a CIA analyst, and a House Intelligence Committee staff member. He is the Vice Chair of the America First Policy Institute’s Center for American Security.