As the world watches the escalating confrontation between Israel and Iran, Tehran seeks to project a posture of strength, insisting it will fire the final shot. Yet behind closed doors, the Islamic Republic is doing the opposite: quietly pushing for a ceasefire. Not for the sake of regional stability, and certainly not for the safety of its own people, but for one singular purpose: gaining the time it desperately needs to finalize its nuclear ambitions.
Recent U.S. strikes on three well-known nuclear sites—Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan—were widely interpreted as major blows to Iran’s atomic infrastructure. But intelligence sources suggest otherwise. These facilities, long exposed and monitored, had already been emptied of their most sensitive material. The regime, fully aware of its security vulnerabilities, had preemptively moved its enriched uranium stockpiles to undisclosed underground locations beyond the reach of satellites, IAEA inspectors, or international oversight.
Within these hidden fortresses, Iran is now operating with renewed secrecy and efficiency, drawing closer than ever to the nuclear threshold. The technical knowledge, financial means, and ideological justification are all in place. What Tehran lacks is time, and a ceasefire would offer precisely that.
Interpreting recent shifts in Iran’s rhetoric or diplomatic tone as a sign of moderation would be a grave mistake. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, like the regime’s founder Ayatollah Khomeini, adheres to the Shiite doctrine of taqiyya, a religiously sanctioned practice of deceit in service of ideological goals. Under this doctrine, false assurances and strategic lies are not only permitted but encouraged when advancing the interests of the Islamic Revolution.
To believe that the Islamic Republic has abandoned its nuclear ambitions is to fall victim to the same diplomatic delusions that have haunted Western policymakers for decades. If Tehran is granted even a temporary pause in hostilities, it will use that reprieve to complete what it has long pursued in secret: a functioning nuclear weapon.
The regime’s post-conflict playbook is consistent. First, it brutally reasserts domestic control by rounding up dissenters and executing alleged collaborators, fostering fear and obedience. Then it accelerates its nuclear program under the justification of defensive necessity. Finally, it announces a strategic shift in defense policy, citing foreign aggression as the rationale for legitimizing its nuclear breakout.
This is not merely a regional threat. A nuclear Iran represents a global danger: a volatile theocracy armed with the ultimate weapon, unbound by international norms or rational deterrence theory. Its constitution mandates the export of revolutionary ideology. Its history proves a willingness to sacrifice its own people and regional peace to preserve its grip on power.
Yet there is another Iran, one represented by the millions who have taken to the streets in recent years, demanding change. The regime has never been weaker in its ability to suppress dissent, and the people have never been stronger in their desire for transformation. Under the symbolic leadership of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, a growing segment of Iranians envisions a secular, democratic, and stable future.
Such an Iran—free, peaceful, and aligned with global values—would be a far more effective guarantor of regional security than any bunker-busting missile. The international community must recognize this moment for what it is: a historic inflection point. It is not just about disarming a regime. It is about enabling the rise of a new Iran, one that safeguards not only its own people but also the shared interests of a civilized world.
Ahmad Batebi is a political dissident and former political prisoner who spent nearly a decade in Iranian prisons. He was arrested during the 1998 student protests after his photo appeared on the cover of The Economist, holding a bloodied shirt belonging to one of the wounded students. Initially sentenced to death, his sentence was later commuted to 15 years in prison under international pressure. After nearly ten years behind bars, he managed to escape. He first fled to Iraq and was later granted political asylum in the United States.
Since arriving in the U.S. in 2009, Batebi worked as a journalist and analyst at Voice of America until its shutdown in 2025. He pursued his education through to the doctoral level in cybersecurity and has remained a regular commentator on Iranian affairs across media and think tanks. Batebi is also known for his active role in supporting the Abraham Accords and efforts to bring the people of Iran and Israel closer together.