As the 2025 election season enters the “playoffs,” Jack Ciattarelli has earned a realistic chance to win New Jersey and prove it is now a legitimate swing state.

Admittedly, that path is narrow, and fighting electoral history is never easy. But here is the roadmap to victory, backed by my latest polling.

Before diving into those numbers, allow me to defend New Jersey to the rest of America. Jersey gets a very bad rap and way too much negative media attention. It is not merely the stepbrother to neighboring New York.

It is a gorgeous state, truly living up to its “Garden State” moniker. Most importantly, New Jersey embodies an ethos of patriotic Americana. It remains fiercely proud of its deep heritage as a founding bastion of America, where giants like Washington waged war to form America.

I recently filmed an upcoming documentary there on the massive ethnic moves to the political right in New Jersey. Tony Soprano’s hometown flipped to the GOP, as did Passaic County, where much of “The Sopranos” was filmed. Both Italians and Hispanics in New Jersey have left the radical Democrats in massive numbers, moving the state decidedly into battleground status.

While filming, I noticed more American flags than I have seen anywhere else in America! It is a fervently proud and patriotic place, albeit one ill-served by corrupt, ineffective Democrat rule.

So, for those patriots in Jersey, here are the hard numbers and the tangible plan to win:

The Shadow of Incumbency

Our new TIPP poll of 1,524 registered New Jersey voters makes clear that Democrats remain favored. For instance, the Dems have controlled the New Jersey state legislature for over two decades straight, and that dominance casts a long shadow over any outsider challenging the crooked system.

But guess what?

That same dominance also means Democrats own the state’s severe problems. You break it, you bought it, NJ Dems.

•    72% call affordability a major challenge.

•    63% cite property taxes.

•    57% name energy prices.

•    Nearly 7 in 10 blame Democrats—Murphy, Biden’s policies, or the party overall—for high energy costs.

In baseball terms, Democrats have been on the mound a long time. So, the runs that score show up in the Democrats’ collective ERA stats. Mikie Sherrill inherits her party’s record. She is a loyal, partisan soldier in the corrupt Jersey Democrat machine.

The Shadow of Personalities

President Trump’s legendary presence looms especially large in this region. A true alpha, he takes up all the oxygen in the room. New Jersey has a complicated relationship with their Uncle Trump—familiar, larger than life, and impossible to ignore.

Democrats will do all they can to keep Ciattarelli in that shadow, making the race about personalities instead of performance.

But this poll shows the agenda tied to Trump is far more popular than any personality fights. A 55–36 majority supports deportations. Affordability (72%) dominates voter concerns, and voters correctly blame Democrats for a sliding standard of living in the Garden State. These working-class, blue-collar issues cut across party lines.

So, regardless of voters’ views on the current president, this race is about New Jersey. In that state, patriotic populism is a winning message. People clamor for safety and prosperity, yet get neither from entrenched Trenton interests. From Mikie Sherrill, they know that they will only get the status quo from another DC politician who moved to New Jersey just to run.

The Path Forward

In a head-to-head race without party ID, my poll shows Jack Ciattarelli trailing by only 1%, 36-37%, with a large 27% undecided. Once party ID is introduced, however, the race gets more challenging, with Jack at -7% among likely voters and -4% among “regular” voters.

That “regular” term means voters who say they “always/nearly always” vote in non-presidential years. Among that key cohort, the race for Ciattarelli is 43-47%, with only 9% undecided. So, it is uphill, no doubt. No exaggerated hype, no spin.

But…the numbers also show that Ciattarelli has a credible path if he stays disciplined.

•    Affordability = Accountability. One-party rule made Jersey unaffordable; voters want relief.

•    Deportations = Safety. Secure borders and fair enforcement mean safer streets, higher wages for citizens, and more affordable housing for the people who have called New Jersey home for generations.

•    Step Out of the Shadows. Don’t let opponents make this about national personalities or party labels. Make it about performance.

The Bottom Line

New Jersey is in play, and the Democrats know it. Privately, they worry, and publicly they commit big funds to a state they have long taken for granted.

But New Jersey citizens are frustrated and restless. Understandably. They embrace their bold history, back to the American founding. In historic and beautiful Morristown, there is a statue depicting George Washington, Alexander Hamilton, and Marquis de Lafayette meeting there to plan America’s final victory over the British.

That spirit lives on—and not just in a marvelous statue… but in the hearts and minds of New Jersey patriots.

Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote.

He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, plus a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.