Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is in America this week to sell his victory over Russia plan, which if accepted, could lead to a broader war in Europe that includes the United States. His strategy is to deliver messages to three distinct audiences and secure an approval from President Joe Biden.
First, on Sunday, Zelensky’s sales pitch began with a visit to an ammunition plant in Biden’s former hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, paid for by the American taxpayer via a U.S. Air Force C-17 aircraft that acted as a chauffeur for the Ukrainian. That visit was hosted by Pennsylvania Democrat governor Josh Shapiro, and the purpose was to call attention to America’s ongoing support for the war effort.
Mr. Zelensky highlighted the plant’s production of 155 mm artillery shells, a key munition in the war. He noted the Biden administration announced the plant will ramp up production allegedly to meet Ukraine’s significant requirements and then the Ukrainian leader promised, “we are strengthening the defense of liberty and democracy.”
Zelensky’s message to all Americans was “we” are in this war together. However, only Democrat politicians were present at the munitions plant, which made the visit appear to be partisan and certainly not representative of all Americans.
Second, on Tuesday, Zelensky spoke at the United Nations Security Council. He urged the Council to join him in forcing Russia to sue for peace by warning “This war can’t simply fade away, this war can’t be calmed by talks. Actions are needed. Russia can only be forced into peace.”
Zelensky did not explain what was meant by forcing Moscow to sue for peace. However, he baited the Council by claiming that Moscow was planning to attack three Ukrainian nuclear plants, and then he said, “We have proof of this.”
If that warning weren’t enough to alarm the Council about a potential nuclear incident inside Ukraine, Zelensky once again said, “The longer this tragic war continues, the greater the risk of escalation and spillover.”
At that point Zelensky tried to globalize the war to bolster his argument. He called on the UN to address North Korea and Iran sending weapons to Russia. Further, he asserted Russia is aiding Iran’s nuclear weapons program in exchange for drones and ballistic missiles.
Zelensky’s message to the Council was that his plan to force Russia to seek peace is based on the principles and values of the UN Charter. Therefore, the Council should support him because he respects the UN, and besides, the war has tentacles well beyond Eastern Europe.
Third, Zelensky will be in Washington this Thursday and Friday to speak with Biden and then Vice President Kamala Harris. He promises to then share the details of his “Victory Plan” and hopefully to gain their support.
That plan, according to Zelensky, begins this fall and “will determine the future of this war.” Evidently, according to Zelensky’s previous statements, the plan involves gaining Biden’s approval for Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the West to strike deep into Russia.
There are signs that the Biden administration is shifting its stance on the use of long-range weapons and the quantity provided to Ukraine. That agreement is likely the lynchpin to Zelensky’s “victory plan.”
Zelensky’s message to Biden and Harris is simple: give me permission to use the weapons you provided and my “Victory Plan” will force Russia to sue for peace.
Of course, Zelensky expects to win their support because to date, both Biden and Harris have vigorously supported Ukraine with hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of arms and humanitarian aid. Zelensky also believes if Harris is elected, she will continue Biden’s policies of backing Ukraine.
The downside to Zelensky’s three messages is the American people are split on continued support for Ukraine — an election vulnerability. Second, the UN is a toothless tiger and cannot do anything about the ongoing war primarily because Russia holds veto authority over the Council. Third, Biden and Harris may support Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” but that may depend on the outcome of the fall presidential election. At this point, if former President Trump wins this fall, he has promised to quickly end the war.
We must not forget that Russian President Vladimir Putin also has a vote regarding Zelensky’s plan. Recently, Putin accelerated his industrial base to produce more arms and increased conscription to add to his military manpower. Besides, his threats about using nuclear weapons against Ukraine should not be dismissed.
Where does this leave us? If Biden/Harris approve Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” which likely includes deep strikes into Russia, and Zelensky targets key Russian facilities, then the war could quickly enlarge just in time for the fall U.S. election. At that point, it will be anyone’s guess whether Putin follows up threats to bring down the nuclear hammer on Ukraine or extends the conventional fight into one that involves the U.S. and by association the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
What is clear is that the October surprise for America’s presidential election might just be an extension of the Russia-Ukraine war that never should have happened, but thanks to the malfeasance of Biden and Harris, we find ourselves in a very serious set of circumstances.
Robert Maginnis is a retired US Army officer, who serves as a contractor at the Pentagon and is the author of eleven books on national security and foreign affairs issues.
Image: Public domain.