When we look back on the 1980s, a decade characterized by renewed Western strength and prosperity after the malaise of the 1970s, many of us think of three towering figures: Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and Pope John Paul II. These three people were committed to individual liberty, both political and spiritual, and they provided the economic, military, and moral impetus for that amazing decade, a decade that ended with the collapse of the once formidable—indeed, seemingly unbeatable—Soviet Union.
When I look at the world today, I’m beginning to wonder whether, in place of the Trio of Titans in the 1980s, the third decade of the 21st century will bring us the Dynamic Duo of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Working in tandem in the last few months, these months have brought about the military downfall of Iran and its proxy armies (Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), even as we’re witnessing the resurgence of the Abraham Accords, which will bring Israel into the fold of its Arab-Muslim Middle Eastern neighbors.
Image by ChatGPT.
Since the October 7, 2023, massacre in Israel, the Israel Defense Forces, under Benjamin Netanyahu, have relentlessly been destroying the Iranian proxies surrounding Israel on all sides. They’ve done so through traditional warfare, especially in Gaza, where the Hamas militants have embedded themselves amongst supportive civilians, and through innovative tactics, such as using pagers to geld most Hezbollah members.
In Iran, Israel used sophisticated technology and on-the-ground information to destroy most of Iran’s military infrastructure, both men and materials, without any significant civilian casualties in Iran and without the loss of a single Israeli soldier. (This contrasts with the Gaza campaign, which has led to many Israeli military deaths, each of which represents a disproportionate loss in a tiny country.) Israel’s military actions laid the groundwork for America’s. strike on Iran’s nuclear installations, including effectively imploding Fordow.
For those keeping score, Hezbollah is so broken that it refused to come to Iran’s aid, the Houthis are broken but too dumb to stop fighting, and Israel says that it controls 65% of the Gaza Strip. The BBC, no friend to Israel, reported yesterday that the word from within Gaza is that the situation is even worse than Israel reports:
A senior officer in Hamas’s security forces has told the BBC the Palestinian armed group has lost about 80% of its control over the Gaza Strip and that armed clans are filling the void.
The lieutenant colonel said Hamas’s command and control system had collapsed due to months of Israeli strikes that have devastated the group’s political, military and security leadership.
[snip]
In the messages, the officer painted a picture of Hamas’s internal disintegration and the near-total collapse of security across Gaza, which the group governed before the conflict.
“Let’s be realistic here - there’s barely anything left of the security structure. Most of the leadership, about 95%, are now dead... The active figures have all been killed,” he said. “So really, what’s stopping Israel from continuing this war?”
“Logically, it has to continue until the end. All the conditions are aligned: Israel has the upper hand, the world is silent, the Arab regimes are silent, criminal gangs are everywhere, society is collapsing.”
The Hamas guy is dead wrong about the world being silent (it’s screamingly antisemitic), but I hope he’s correct about Hamas’s collapse. Hamas is a foul organization with an ideology perfectly aligned with Naziism. (As a reminder, Hitler deeply admired Islam, and many Muslims allied with the Nazis during WWII.)
In just five months, Israel and America have become the strong horses—and most people, especially Muslims (as Osama bin Laden knew), will back the strong horse.
Yesterday, S. David Sultzer wrote that the most powerful tribal leaders in Hebron have decided to recognize the State of Israel, formally breaking with the Palestinian Authority. The head honcho of Hebron’s tribes plans to create a formal emirate that will join the Abraham Accords.
Syria’s new government has also been making noises about making peace with Israel.
And according to a Fox News report, the latest domino to fall may be Lebanon:
The U.S. envoy to Lebanon championed a response issued by Beirut on Monday to a proposal by Washington that detailed the complete disarmament of the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah in exchange for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from its southern region.
Envoy Thomas Barrack told reporters he was “unbelievably satisfied” with Beirut’s timely response to a June 19 proposal that called for the disarmament of Hezbollah within a four-month timeframe.
“What the government gave us was something spectacular in a very short period of time,” Barrack said following a meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who took the top job in January. “I’m unbelievably satisfied with the response.”
The same article quoted above notes that Israel believes that it’ll be possible to add both those countries to the Abraham Accords:
The comments come one week after Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Sa’ar said Jerusalem “is interested in expanding the Abraham Accords circle of peace and normalization.
“We have an interest in adding countries, such as Syria and Lebanon, our neighbors, to the circle of peace and normalization – while safeguarding Israel’s essential and security interests,” he added, though much of the normalization efforts would depend on Israel ending its war in the Gaza Strip.
Of course, the crown jewel is Saudi Arabia, and Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a man I’ve long admired, might be the person to make that happen. I understand that bin Salman is a Muslim royal who is perfectly capable of the tyrannical cruelty that goes with Islam, especially as practiced in Saudi Arabia.
However, bin Salman is also a true reformer who long ago recognized that his country could no longer continue to function floating on a sea of (diminishing amounts of) oil and bound by a 7th-century social and political system. He’s making big changes, he’s hugely popular, and I’m betting on him joining the Abraham Accords.
The Roman writer Vegetius is credited with the adage “si vis pacem, para bellum” (“if you want peace, prepare for war”). While peaceniks hate it, it’s true.
Nations that spread themselves out before others as victims ripe for the plucking will find themselves being plucked. Israel discovered this on October 7. Even if you bristle with arms, if you show yourself unwilling to use them other than in the most minimalist fashion, your enemies will assume that they’re mostly decorative and act accordingly.
Both Trump and Netanyahu have proven that they will use their militaries to the utmost in defense of their countries, but that their goal is peace. They’re too smart to beat their swords into plowshares—an invitation to future abuse in a dangerous world—but they’ve shown their enemies that they will lay the swords down for anyone who is legitimately willing to join with them in peaceful endeavors.