For two years, beginning within hours of the October 7 attack on Israel, we’ve incessantly heard the “genocide” of Gaza's civilians needs to stop. It’s stopped. Where are the celebrations among pro-Palestinian protesters? Crickets. What does this tell us that we didn’t already know?

In the Sherlock Holmes crime mystery, The Adventure of Silver Blaze, the plot centers on Holmes’s investigation into the disappearance of a prized racehorse and the apparent murder of its trainer on the eve of a major race. The critical clue was the failure of the stable’s guard dog to bark on the night in question, indicating the intruder was familiar to the dog. Holmes concluded the trainer attempted to conceal the horse and was kicked and accidentally killed by it while attempting to injure it to fix the race. It was located disguised by dye and concealed in a nearby stable.

It doesn’t require Sherlock Holmes to figure out that the failure of the Gaza genocide chorus to celebrate peace means it was never about Gazans. It was about hating Israel. The chorus materialized immediately after the October 7 atrocities. The Left’s bloodlust is boundless. Torture, rapes, murders, beheadings, and kidnappings weren’t their concerns. All that mattered was Israel's destruction was finally underway. The protests celebrated death. Israel’s survival and victory elicit dismay among protesters. Protest imagery suggests most participants are overwhelmingly young, skewing female. In contrast, pro-Israel protesters skew older and male. Draw obvious conclusions regarding the state of our educational system.

This gender/age dynamic dominates New York City’s mayoral race. Nationwide, over 57% of college students are female. About 600,000 students attend NYC universities. Maybe 100,000 are foreigners, leaving a potential 500,000 voting bloc in a contest anticipated to draw a larger than normal turnout. Putting this number into perspective, in 2021 Eric Adams beat Curtis Sliwa, 753,801 votes to 312,385. This explains the electoral prospects of an AOC or a Mamdani. Or Kamala nationally. Mamdani’s campaign has an extensive outreach operation targeting college students, pandering to their concerns. Mob pandering includes free mass transit, a rent freeze, and free CUNY and SUNY tuition. Cuomo and Sliwa lack meaningful campus initiatives. Mamdani has thousands of grassroots organizers on campuses, canvassing, and phone banking. Organized student anti-Israel protests previewed the mayoral election. Mamdani possesses a robust social media presence. Cuomo’s is a flop, typical for that loser.

A rumored October surprise may be coming. A federal indictment of Mamdani for accepting foreign campaign donations may drop. Whether that might help or hurt him among NYC’s voting demographic is unclear. Trump’s indictments only increased his support.

Gazans celebrated the ceasefire by killing each other. After the peace deal’s announcement, violent clashes erupted between Hamas and the Doghmush clan (or “gang” as Hamas describes it). Summary executions followed. The security vacuum created by Israel’s withdrawal allowed revival of factional conflicts amid charges of having collaborated with Israel. Crickets from the Gaza genocide chorus. Dreams of a reformed Hamas are fantasies. Gaza is a post-apocalyptic hellscape.

Pay attention to ongoing cross-border hostilities between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) group, camped out in Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The TTP maintains relationships with the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The 2020 Doha agreement Trump negotiated with the Taliban prohibits them from harboring terrorists threatening external interests. Trump possesses the necessary excuses to turn Afghanistan into a parking lot. The massive Middle Eastern U.S. military buildup in recent weeks creates intimidation, and failing that, supports warfare. American diplomats are undoubtedly meeting with Taliban leaders. The same Islamic states just enlisted to prevail over Hamas leaders to agree to a settlement are surely parties to ongoing negotiations. Bagram airbase will inevitably return to American control.

Between 2002 and 2010 the U.S. gave over $19 billion to Pakistan, mostly to fund counterterrorism. Pakistani intelligence obviously didn’t stand in the way of bin Laden’s execution. Moderate Islamic regimes are as threatened by foreign and domestic jihadists as other nations. Pakistan and other regional players are being positioned and obligated to police their neighborhood, backed by American firepower. Israel just served its role after Netanyahu’s White House visits on February 4, April 7, and July 7.

Pakistan conducted a Kabul airstrike earlier this month, targeting the Taliban leader. Whether he survived is unclear. Pakistan maintains that India is in bed with the Taliban and other jihadis threatening Pakistan. India just signed an agreement with the Taliban and has been romancing China. 50% Tariffs are pressuring India as Trump reverses realignments triggered by Biden’s precipitous Afghanistan withdrawal.

Israel’s September 9 airstrike on Hamas leaders, in their presumed Qatari safe haven, changed everything. If Hamas leaders aren't safe there, neither are Qatar’s rulers. Trump undoubtedly approved the strike in advance. He pretended to be upset with Israel, then signed a September 29 executive order guaranteeing Qatar’s security. Qatar’s leaders now owe Trump. Exactly one month after the September 9 attack, 10 days after the executive order, the Gaza ceasefire deal was finalized. Qatar served (past tense) as the global funder of terrorism and domestic American unrest. September 9 marked the end of the absurdity of a nation with only 360,000 citizens playing global puppeteer.

Among the loudest voices of America’s Gaza genocide chorus, Tucker Carlson didn’t bark at the ceasefire announcement. All he could muster was a perfunctory “Thank God.” Attenuating Carlson’s Qatari pals may play out in unexpected, positive ways. Steve Bannon, who wandered (past tense) off the MAGA reservation with his suicidal isolationism, notes the Gaza ceasefire removed a wedge dividing MAGA forces: “Trump didn’t just stop a war. He stopped a political implosion.” Bannon mocked Trump’s doubters: “They thought he’d bomb Tehran. Instead, he brokered the most complex peace deal in the region’s history.”

Trump noted during his Knesset speech, “Everyone thought I was going to be brutal… No, my personality actually is all about stopping wars, and it seems to work.” Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. He was brutal when wiping out ISIS, killing hundreds of Russian mercenaries in Syria, or erasing Iranian General Soleimani. We’ll see how Afghanistan plays out. If Taliban leaders are smart, they’ll cooperate. It’s their choice.

Lost in the commotion over Trump’s Middle Eastern tour was the 25th anniversary of al-Qaeda’s attack on the USS Cole on October 12, 2000, a 9/11 prelude. A resurgent al-Qaeda, led by bin Laden’s eldest son, is on the horizon, operating 40 terrorist training camps in Afghanistan in preparation for mass casualty attacks on American, European, and Middle Eastern targets. Such an eventuality would permanently silence our domestic Hamas support network, unleashing a wave of patriotism reminiscent of that displayed after 9/11. It would mark the end of Democrats’ national presence.

A quarter century later, al-Qaeda’s back -- exponentially bigger, better trained, with bigger objectives. Accompanied by a domestic chorus of clueless children aligned with a congressional Islamo-communist bloc. Democrats again represent the treasonous party, reprising 1861. This won’t end well for them, but the nation must first endure another test.

Douglas Schwartz blogs at The Great Class War, applying pattern recognition of historical cycles to place current events into context.

Image: Tasnim News Agency