I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.

According to the Daily Mail:

A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'

Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.

All thirteen keys are as follows:

Looking at the bullet points of Lichtman’s factors (and I have not read his book), I’m a bit confused as to his pronouncement in Biden’s favor.

There are two other factors that Lichtman hasn’t accounted for.

One: This is the first election since 1892 that, while it involves an incumbent, still allows Americans to compare two presidential terms head-to-head. The norm is for the incumbent to face someone who assures voters that, given the chance, he can do better. This time, however, as was the case when Grover Cleveland ran against Chester A. Arthur in 1892, voters can do that head-to-head comparison. And in 1892, Cleveland won.

Two: This is the first election in which the incumbent is using the power of the government to destroy his opponent. Americans still like fair play. That’s why Trump’s popularity has grown since the lawfare began. If he gets convicted—which is likely considering the careful forum shopping—that won’t destroy him. Instead, it will convince many Americans that if they don’t like lawfare as a campaign tactic, Trump must win.

So, Lichtman’s been right before (although he only got it partially right in 2000, when Al Gore, whom he predicted as the victor, got the popular vote but not the Electoral College vote). This year, I believe—and hope—that Lichtman’s predictive abilities have broken completely before the bizarre realities of 2024.

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