I know that correlation and causation are not the same thing. That is, just because you can map similar patterns doesn’t mean the underlying factors driving those patterns are related. Indeed, there’s an entire amusing website dedicated to spurious correlations.
However, when enough correlations pile up, causation starts to scream out, and that’s the case with the connection between illegal aliens and violent crime. This can be seen most recently in Denver, Colorado, where Trump deported Tren de Aragua gang members, and the Canary Islands off the coast of Spain, where illegal aliens are flooding the small territory.
Aurora, Colorado, which is part of the Denver metro area, hit the headlines shortly before the November 2024 election when it emerged that illegal aliens who belonged to the vicious Tren de Aragua gang were terrorizing the community. Democrats, of course, denied that there was a problem, only to be foiled by facts.
When Trump came into office, one of the first things that he did was to have his administration conduct an ICE raid in the Denver-Aurora region, rounding up 100 Venezuelan illegal aliens, all of whom were alleged to be affiliated with Tren de Aragua. These men have since found a new home in El Salvador’s prison system.
Venezuela, incidentally, the country from which these men came, has the world’s highest crime index.
Now that the first quarter of 2025 has wrapped up, the statistics are out for crime in the Denver metro area, and they’re pretty staggering:
Homicides are down nearly 60% in Denver so far this year, according to the newly released report by the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
It’s a significant drop from last year and one of the biggest declines in violent crime rates in the country.
“Violent crime is just about reducing in every city, but we were the city in which it had declined the most,” said Denver Police Chief Ron Thomas.
The police chief takes credit for the drop in crime, without mentioning ICE. And of course, maybe he’s right. Maybe the correlation between removing 100 alleged gang members here illegally from the world’s most crime-ridden country has nothing to do with the drop in crime. You decide.
And while you’re thinking about that, let’s take a peek at the Canary Islands, a region northwest of Africa, but nevertheless an autonomous community of Spain. In 2024, 45,843 illegal aliens, mostly from Mali, Senegal, and Morocco, arrived at the Canary Islands, surpassing 2023’s number of 39,910 illegal aliens. (They call them “migrants” in the article from which I got the figures, but none came via approved immigration channels.) Most go on to Spain, but many remain in the Canaries, at least until they’re processed to enter Spain.
In Mali, 95% of the residents are Muslim. In Senegal, 96.6% of the residents are Muslim. In Morocco, 99% of the residents are Muslim.
Muslim practitioners from Africa and the Middle East, when relocated to Europe, have shown a high propensity to commit crime, especially rape and other violent crimes, although it’s hard to track the data because European countries hide it. Still, these links—here, here, and here—support the claim that Muslim immigrants from Third World countries drive up crime in once-peaceful European communities.
With that in mind, ask yourself about correlation and causation as you read this news report:
Violent crime is surging across the Canary Islands, with intentional homicides, attempted murders, and sexual assaults all rising significantly in the first quarter of 2025, even as overall crime has fallen.
According to the latest crime statistics published by Spain’s Ministry of the Interior and cited by La Rázon, the islands recorded a 3.8 percent decrease in total offenses compared to the same period last year — but this masks troubling increases in the most serious categories.
Homicides on the Spanish archipelago rose by a staggering 400 percent, jumping from two cases in early 2024 to ten so far this year. Attempted homicides also nearly doubled, rising by 87.5 percent to 15 registered offenses. Sexual assaults involving penetration increased by 11.1 percent, reaching 60 cases in the first three months of 2025.
Regarding those rape numbers, in Catalonia, Spain, 91% of all those in prison for rape are foreigners.
I keep thinking of something Donald Trump said in 2015 when he announced his candidacy:
When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. […] They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us [sic]. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.
When he said this, Trump sent the affluent Democrat establishment into paroxysms of rage, but affirmed reality for normal Americans who had been gaslit for so long.
At a certain point, there is a nexus between correlation and causation, and we all know it. Trump, however, is the only Western politician with the courage to name it and act upon it.
Moroccans attack a woman in Tenerife. X screen grab (cropped).