Last week, I made a slightly bold prediction that the Iranian mullah regime would fall somewhere between June 17 and 24. The predicate was that, since the end of WW2, the US Deep State (along with its Cold War enemy, the USSR, for the first half of that period) has been managing the world’s regions by situating relatively equal forces in opposition to each other. This keeps regional conflicts at a low-simmering boil, which is controlled and limited—and, most importantly, restricted from overflowing beyond the region and thrusting the world into WW3.

Further, this strategy, while noble and even successful, may have been a bit of a ruse from Day One, and certainly, is in many ways, one today. This “Regional-Balance” strategy is a financial boon for certain American and multinational interests: the weapons manufacturing industry, the reconstruction industry, the smugglers, grifters, and grafters, all of whom benefit from perpetual, managed conflict.

Image created by editing a ChatGPT image.

This brings us to Iran-Israel. A twelve-day war has seemingly culminated, at least for now, in a ceasefire, the last act being a farcical, coordinated reprisal strike by Iran on American interests in Qatar. But what hasn’t happened is a regime change. Where did I go wrong?

The weak link was almost certainly the Iranian dissidents and average, on-the-ground Iranians. Many, including me, had assumed that they were ready, courageous, even suicidal-ish. Thus, they would rise up, organically, once they saw the regime shamed again and again.

This assumption may have been shared by the Israelis and some of the Trump administration. And indeed, the Shah’s son was positioned to lead an organic revolution and overthrow of the mullahs and IRGC.

However, it turns out that this assumption was based on two miscalculations.

First, it missed the level of fear instilled by a 46-year-old regime of psychological and physical torture. Apparently, the truly fearless/suicidal Iranians have been murdered, kidnapped, jailed, exiled, tortured, and cowed into submission.

Meanwhile, the average Iranian, still living in the country, has made a modus vivendi of sorts with the regime. Apparently, a lot of the middle-class and wealthy live comfortable lives, work moderate hours, and generally benefit from a very oil-rich country.

For them, Islamic fundamentalist strictures are more of an annoyance than a debilitating code. Women adapt to covering their hair in fashionable garb, while men adapt to occasional performative prayer or whatever else is required of them. And the poor, especially the Shia, still somewhat appreciate the regime.

Second, there is no real resistance leader. It seems that yesterday morning, the Shah’s son was granted one last chance. Prince Reza Pahlavi would broadcast an offer to the regime henchmen to defect and call for the citizens to demonstrate. In conjunction, Israel would blow up the IRGC and kill a lot of the regime elite, while freeing political prisoners from the notorious Evin Prison.

Both the Prince and the Israelis played their part. But perhaps the son was not quite persuasive enough. Or perhaps he is a bit toxic, or maybe he’s just an unimposing figure for the Iranians to follow. Add to that (unconfirmed) reports of wholesale killings of actual dissidents on the streets, and the chance was lost.

Trump, the pragmatist par excellence, surely followed this matter closely. When it was clear that regime change would not happen yesterday or anytime soon, he cut his wins (I meant that) and terminated the farce. Bibi agreed, knowing that a weakened regime, severed from its proxies and air defenses, is still a victory. The mullahs gladly grabbed the chance to survive. And regime change has been tabled for now.

What about Turkey, then? Just two days ago, it seemed Turkey was sliding into the Public Enemy Number One spot, replacing Iran in the Regional-Balance balance sheet. A suicide bomber, claiming to be from Al-Qaeda, had murdered a score of Christian worshippers in Syria. Surely, the next part of the plan was a revelation of his ties to Turkey. And then gradual further moves towards placing Turkey as the number one regional villain.

But that plan seems to have been tabled till the Iranian regime does actually collapse. If it ever does.

C’est la vie. C’est la guerre.

Le jeu continue.

Norman Krieg is a pseudonym.