For perhaps the first time in a century, conditions for peace in the Middle East appear to be coming together, for it’s being reshaped in ways few could have foreseen. Now taking center stage are the ancient clans and tribes of the people in Gaza and the West Bank. If they succeed, that will reverberate far beyond the Middle East, into the UN, and into every Western country where the socialist left has allied with radical Islamists.
Iran’s bloody theocracy, the greatest threat to Middle East peace since 1979, has lost Allah’s mandate. Tiny Israel humbled it, and the theocracy now hangs by a thread. Elsewhere, Hezbollah’s geldings no longer control Lebanon. Sunnis who chose to cooperate with Israel against Iran control Syria. And the Muslim Brotherhood, the organization that was the wellspring of all 20th-century Islamic radicalism (Hamas is an MB offshoot), is banned as a terrorist organization in almost every Middle East country.
Image created using ChatGPT.
Then there’s President Trump’s brilliant Abraham Accords, meant to bring diplomacy, prosperity, and peace to Israel and all of its Sunni Muslim neighbors. Four nations—the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco—have signed the accords with Israel, with many more expected, including the lynchpin of any Sunni-Jewish peace, Saudi Arabia.
That leaves two outstanding obstacles to peace: Hamas in Gaza and, to a lesser extent, the PLO in the West Bank. Hamas is ever closer to annihilation, while the PLO, a corrupt police state with no popular mandate, has maintained a studied silence, hoping to remain in power and on the international aid gravy train.
What may destroy both organizations is the simple fact that they are corrupt overlays of ancient clans. And the clans are not happy with the status quo.
Israel is already exploiting this in Gaza. Reuters recently reported:
...Hamas is battling to survive in Gaza in the face of rebellious local clans and relentless Israeli military pressure.
Hamas fighters are operating autonomously under orders to hold out as long as possible but the Islamist group is struggling to maintain its grip as Israel openly backs tribes opposing it...
Meanwhile, there has been a stunning development in the West Bank:
The leader of Hebron’s most influential clan...and four other leading Hebron sheikhs have signed a letter pledging peace and full recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. Their plan is for Hebron to break out of the Palestinian Authority, establish an emirate of its own, and join the Abraham Accords.
The driving force behind returning to a clan system (“emirates”) in the West Bank has been Mordechai Kedar, a scholar of Arab culture at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University. For twenty years, Kekar has been
...trying to sell the idea of Palestinian emirates with the West Bank’s seven culturally distinctive cities run individually by their leading clans.
[snip]
He says failing states in the Arab world—Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Sudan, Yemen, Libya—are conglomerates of ethnic, religious and sectarian groups, with modern states imposed flimsily on top. Successes—Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the seven emirates of the U.A.E.—are each controlled by one family. “Al-Sabah owns Kuwait. Al-Thani owns Qatar. Al-Saud owns Saudi Arabia,” he says. “Dubai has very little oil, but it’s run by one family, al-Maktoum,” so it can thrive.
The idea of the PLO and the Palestinian Authority was to supplant traditional clan and religious loyalties with a national Palestinian identity. “It failed,” Mr. Kedar says, “and the proof is Hamas,” which puts radical Islam first. Underneath it all, the clan system survived: “Somebody from Hebron—not only will he not move to another West Bank town because he will be viewed as a foreigner, but even in Hebron he will not move to another neighborhood that belongs to another clan.”
Were Kedar’s plan to become a reality, it would be earth-shaking. If you make the PLO a nullity and wipe out Hamas, replacing them with legitimate governments that are allied with Israel, the world changes overnight. True peace in the Middle East would become inevitable.
The imperative to destroy Israel from the “river to the sea” would not have the support of any nation besides Iran’s impotent theocracy. It would not have the backing of any Palestinians on the borders of Israel. Moreover, the Muslim Brotherhood would become simply an illegitimate pan-European movement with no roots left in the Middle East.
Arab Journalist Amjad Taha about radical Islamists
— Usha Rani (@BBhagya28) November 12, 2024
"Mark my words: their assault on your civilization is coming. While we reject this filth, you hand them citizenship"
Arab countries have banned Muslim Brotherhood & radical Islamistspic.twitter.com/J1FeYCspjf pic.twitter.com/nFjcNFw9As
Outside of the Middle East, one can only guess at the ramifications. The entire anti-Israel edifice at the UN might well collapse, given that the UN General Assembly dedicates most of its time to condemning Israel. Who knows? The UN might become a somewhat useful institution. The spigot of international aid to corrupt groups in the Middle East would be turned off.
As to the impact on socialists here in the US and in Europe who are in firm alliance with radical Islamists, I hesitate even to speculate.