With net zero cheerleaders’ dream unraveling, I am reminded of the famous line “We’ll always have Paris,” spoken by Humphrey Bogart’s character, Rick Blaine, to Ingrid Bergman’s character, Ilsa Lund, in the final scene of Casablanca. At this point, the memory of the Paris Climate Treaty signing in 2015 may be all that is left to bring solace to them. High energy prices and grid instability have replaced carbon emissions as the primary concern of member states who signed on to the treaty.

Several developments have brought about this reckoning with and retreat from the promise of net zero.

1. The reelection of Trump and the Republican majority in Congress spelled an end to the federal funds and tax credits used to prop up the renewables industry. With passage of legislation phasing out tax credits and executive action scrutinizing offshore wind leases, investment in the industry evaporated overnight, only showing how fragile it has been from its inception. Trump’s action further tanked the prospects of wind turbine manufacturers and operators in Europe and the U.K. In turn, they are demanding that E.U. and U.K. governments de-risk further any investments in offshore wind, the cost being taken on by consumers in the form of higher electricity rates.
2. The blackout in Spain exposed the limitations on operating a grid with a high percentage of renewables. Prior to the blackout, REN, Spain’s national electricity provider, had been pushing the limit with renewables. When they got to 65%, it collapsed. By dialing back conventional thermal generation, it was decreasing the spinning inertia of large generators available to the grid. REN could have replaced spinning inertia with synthetic inertia from grid-forming devices, but that would significantly add to the cost, so they skipped it, and we now know what happened.  Spain is not unique in this regard though. All national grids with significant renewable generation have been playing this dangerous game.
3. AI energy demands threw a monkey wrench at net zero plans. Data centers require steady 24/7 power, something that renewables cannot provide. Therefore, they are looking elsewhere for solutions, primarily on-site natural gas generation.
4. Reality is setting in with Europeans that going forward, they will be the ones footing the bill for their own security. Prestige projects, like Germany’s Energiewende, will take a back seat to rearmament. The days of all butter and no guns with the U.S. providing its defense are over.

Now, you see why net zero promoters are crying in their beer. They see the writing on the wall and lament that they might have to jump to another cause like Palestine liberation or tranny rights, and those movements are skating on thin ice too.

Image from Grok.