We like to believe that we live in an enlightened age. Unlike the ignorant prejudice of medieval times, unlike the history of slavery around the world and in our own country, unlike the genocide of the Holocaust and the horrors of WWII, ours is a peaceful and progressive age on the pathway to utopia. There has not been a global conflict in 80 years, nor, some believe, is there likely to be one ever again.
Supported by such a view of history, we can anticipate a future of global prosperity in which hunger and want are things of the past and in which there will be no reason for war or oppression. The rise of another Hitler or Stalin seems impossible in an equitable world, where all people have a universal basic income (UBI) and access to free health care, education, food, and housing. The violence of the 20th century seems light-years away. Simply by raising taxes on the rich and prohibiting hate speech and outlawing nationalist and religious extremism, we can create a perfect world.
At the heart of that view of the world are two principles: an equal distribution of wealth and a refusal to pass judgments on any kind of behavior. This is the world on offer from Zohran Mamdani, with his promises of state-run groceries and defunding of the police. What would follow, according to Mamdani’s supporters, is the same peace and prosperity that have been offered by every socialist from Marx and Engels to Hugo Chávez. Why should there be any crime when would-be criminals are given all they need? Why should war between nations exist when all nations are equal?
This, I believe, is the line of thought that appeals to at least 40 percent of young Americans. It is naïve, and it is the same thinking that led to the rise of Hitler and Stalin, both of whom offered “affordability” before they became monstrous and cruel. It is the same tactic employed by every oppressor to gain power: Promise the moon.
The fact is that we have arrived at a dangerous moment in history because of the widespread complacency of our people. In this moment, the young dream of a UBI without work, and many of all ages believe they will not see another major war in their lifetime, if ever.
In reality, a large guaranteed income is impossible. No country in the world has successfully implemented a long-term universal basic income program for all its citizens. To do so in the U.S. (for just $3,000 per month for all adults) would consume $600 billion per month, or $7.2 trillion per annum. That amount would more than double current federal spending of $7 trillion for fiscal 2025. Taxes and additions to the national debt would have to double to provide even a modest UBI, not to mention free health care, education, food, and housing.
That doubling would raise total government spending in the U.S. to some 70% of GDP, leaving little if anything for investment, innovation, and dividend income. The economy would soon dwindle to the point that it could not support an adequate national defense, much less a UBI. Those who dream of a free ride would find life “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short,” to use Hobbes’s famous phrase.
An underlying assumption of utopian thought is that UBI and other equity schemes are possible because the world will continue in peace and without global economic challenges. The COVID epidemic, along with the housing crisis of 2007–2009 and the dotcom bubble before that, should have dispelled this fatuous belief. But apparently it has not.
Far worse is the danger posed by the current axis of China, Russia, and Iran. In the 1930s there was a very large isolationist movement in the U.S. and even in Britain that opposed involvement in future wars. Our current complacency bears resemblance to that isolationism of the past. Both were based on the naïve assumption that foreign tyrants will leave us alone if we practice neutrality, but that has never been the case. Especially today, the U.S. has a target on its back as far as China, Russia, and Iran are concerned. These countries do not wish us well, and it seems they are biding their time for a chance to attack.
Only by shrinking the overall size of government, growing our economy, and using that economy as the basis for greater military spending and strength can we survive the coming conflict with our enemies. The only effective defense is, as President Trump says, “peace through strength.” Only by maintaining our military advantage can we continue in our prosperous and democratic way of life.
But maintaining that advantage rules out any idea of a universal basic income or other increases in government benefits for which the current talk on the left of “affordability” is simply a ruse. Affordability sounds reasonable and fair, but when applied in practice, it is ruinous. Government cannot provide free down payments for mortgages, free university tuition (and elimination of current student debt), free health care, free food, and all the rest. In doing so, we would surrender our economic advantage over our enemies and embolden them toward global war. One can have UBI or national defense, but one cannot have both at the same time.
The truth is that war and economic depression have not magically disappeared in our time. We are closer than we imagine to both of these catastrophes. Only by sacrifice and hard work can we defend our way of life against our enemies. Today, we live in the eye of the storm. When we look to the heavens, we see blue sky, but the truth is that we are facing historic challenges.
This is not the time to be thinking about utopia, UBI, and full benefits for all. It is a time to increase military preparedness and strengthen our economy. One does not survive by pretending evil does not exist. It exists today on a greater scale than ever, and our preparedness must be greater than at any time in the past.
Jeffrey Folks is the author of many books and articles on American culture including Heartland of the Imagination (2011).
Image via Pixabay.