Although President Trump says the United States will not get involved in the current Israel-Iran war, it’s obvious his sympathies lie with the Jewish homeland. The president is now relocating significant military assets to the Middle East, preparing for the possibility that he may decide the United States should take an active role in the conflict. Last night, he stepped it up, as 28 Air Force tankers unexpectedly headed eastbound over the Atlantic toward the war zone. The midnight movements were both a sign of war preparations and a profound message to the Iranian dictators.
Tankers are critical in any modern air battle. Fighters have limited ranges and very little loiter time. Tankers extend the ranges and also add to loiter time over the battlefield. The flying gas tanks are so critical that the Desert Storm air battle planner’s primary concern was not that the stealth fighters would be shot down but that the Iraqi Air Force would successfully concentrate on the tankers, severely limiting the Air Force’s ability.
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The question now is, how far is President Trump willing to go to support Israel? The movement of the tankers says he’s keeping his options open.
At this point, the only commitment may be to be ready to refuel Israeli attack aircraft. Israel has a limited air-to-air refueling capability. Approximately seven aging Boeing 707 tankers limit the IDF’s ability to keep its fighters in flight. The American tankers would increase Israel’s refueling capacity by 400%. Our tankers are also more modern airplanes with newer, sophisticated electronics, as opposed to the aging, maintenance-heavy tankers the Israelis are currently flying.
American refueling would allow Israeli attack aircraft to be much more effective in the airspace over Iran. Most Israeli attacks up to this point have involved standoff weapons. These are missiles and guided bombs launched far from Iranian air defense sites and then guided to the target by GPS and other sophisticated navigational capabilities.
Intelligence sources familiar with the Middle East war say Israeli special operations forces are on the ground in Iran, even inside Tehran. Using laser target designators, they can guide these standoff weapons in the final moments of their flight to the target. In some cases, this can provide an expected accuracy of less than one meter after the weapon’s flight of hundreds of miles.
But these smart weapons have their limitations. Direct attack weapons, where the pilot in the attacking aircraft visualizes the target and then unloads the weapon, pack more capability to do greater damage. Although most of the attacks up to this point have been standoff weapons, Israeli air supremacy over Iran now allows IDF aircraft to get close enough to the target to use direct attack weapons.
But, because these targets are so far from Israel, IDF aircraft would require midair refueling and a route to and back from the target. If President Trump ordered this level of support, the American tankers could orbit over the Persian Gulf, outside Iranian airspace, providing the fuel the IDF aircraft need to have wide-ranging freedom in choosing which targets inside Iran to attack.
Providing flying gas stations over international waters could be the first step. If the president decided more is needed, he could direct American tactical aircraft already in the Middle East to join the fight. At one level, American aircraft could be used to interdict Iranian drones headed toward Israel. At a much more significant level, Air Force and Navy aircraft could strap on bombs and begin to target Iranian military assets within that country.
None of these actions comes without a potential cost. Up until this point, Iran has not attacked American assets during this war. Visible American involvement could change that. We have a significant presence in the Middle East. Combining American military and commercial assets within the range of Iranian weapons creates a target-rich environment for the Iranians. If America became actively involved, other Arab countries in the Gulf region would protest publicly and loudly. But behind closed doors, the moderate Arab nations would be happy if the Iranian menace were removed once and for all.
The question this morning is how far the United States is willing to go in support of Israel. The overnight movement of the tankers does not answer that question. Still, it does demonstrate that, regardless of the final answer to that question, we will have military assets in the area to prosecute that decision.
Ed Sherdlu is a pseudonym.