Pres. Trump will be getting his big, beautiful bill. It won’t be right away, but it shouldn’t be much past Labor Day.
There’s a lot of handwringing and confusion over this bill by would-be deficit hawks, Elon Musk included. But I don’t think most of them have the foggiest idea what’s really happening.
As Stephen Miller pointed out, Budget Reconciliation only allows changes to mandatory program spending like Medicaid. It isn’t an appropriations bill. What Republicans are trying to do with this measure is cut some taxes and peel back the huge enrollments in Medicaid the Biden people engineered the last few years. He further points out that CBO projections of big spending increases are dishonest, as they come from simply extending current tax rates and assuming the current levels of appropriation increases, even though appropriations bills are not in this legislation.
One thing he didn’t mention in the bill, but will be the deciding factor, is the debt-ceiling extension provision. You may remember earlier this year Chuck Schumer broke ranks and helped Republicans pass a debt ceiling increase. This current one will expire sometime between August and September. And it will have to pass, but now they only need 50 votes in the Senate this time because of reconciliation.
Schumer ruefully explained to his colleagues last time, there is really no stopping a President getting his way in this kind of showdown. This is the not-so-secret weapon. If we go past the debt limit final date, the President decides what bills get paid and what don’t, because we only have our current revenues, which are about 70% of what we are spending. Pres. Trump, of course, will want to pay the regular bondholders of U.S. Treasury notes as they come due, so there is no default. He will also pay to keep our military up and running, and vital services- prisons, border security, air traffic control, some law enforcement, and Social Security.
Everything else would have to be shut down or reduced by around 40% until the government can borrow again. Judge Boasberg, the gang at NPR, and many others will be driving for Grub Hub until the big, beautiful bill is passed.
Later this fall, there will either be the full appropriations bills or another stupid Continuing Resolution (CR). This has to be done by September 30, or there is a simple shutdown of all but the most vital government services (mandatory programs like Social Security are not affected in this instance) decided again by the President.
Once more, Trump holds the whip hand, though it may take a while longer. Judge Boasberg, Meghna Chakrabarti, and other federal employees will again be out there delivering for Grub Hub, but eventually an appropriations bill with real spending reforms will happen.
Apart from Elon Musk, there are many, even in Congress, who don’t understand this. My Kentucky buddies, Sen. Paul and Rep. Massie, whom Trump likes to call a grandstander, are good examples. They have a sense of self-importance worthy of a federal district judge. But being in Congress means you are just one of many. You have to leverage your votes to push the bills more to your liking. If at the end of day you are always voting no, that’s not a sign of principle, it’s proof you don’t understand the game.
On the other hand, there is my Kentucky buddy Rep. Brett Guthrie. He’s been working for years to reform Medicaid. He won’t get everything he wants this time around either, but he’ll get a lot, because he understands the process. If you want to change the country from Congress it’s bit by bit, grind it out, every day, every year.
Now, with a President and both Houses of Congress, the GOP is poised to achieve a great deal more, because Pres. Trump holds the winning hand in the coming budget battles. Too bad some of the folks on our side don’t understand this as well as Brett Guthrie or Chuck Schumer.
Image: Fotor