Two wars — Ukraine and Gaza — are killing civilians, destabilizing allies, and draining American power. At their core stand Russia and Iran, two regimes that cannot survive without Beijing’s support. If America wants to end these conflicts on terms that serve U.S. interests, it must compel China to use its leverage — or face consequences. Only Donald Trump has the toughness and pragmatism to make that happen.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has leveled cities, created Europe’s largest refugee crisis since World War II, and cost American taxpayers tens of billions in aid. Hamas’s assault on Israel and the regional war it triggered have killed tens of thousands, disrupted global energy markets, and dragged Iran and its terrorist proxies into the center of the conflict. Gaza lies in ruins, Israel strains under the burden of war mobilization, Arab economies are rattled by refugees and lost trade, and America is paying the bill.
The costs are not abstract. American families see them in higher gas prices, billions sent overseas, and the spread of terrorism that now reaches our own cities. The recent ISIS-inspired attack in New Orleans was a reminder that these wars are not “over there.” They are already on our shores. Washington cannot afford endless proxy wars while its rivals consolidate power.
The truth is that neither Moscow nor Tehran can continue these wars without Beijing. By 2024, trade between Russia and China had reached nearly $245 billion a year. China buys almost half of Russia’s oil and gas and much of its coal. In return, Moscow depends on Chinese machinery, electronics, and cars. Iran is even more exposed: About 90 percent of its crude oil exports go to China. For Beijing, that oil is only ten percent of imports; for Tehran, it is survival. Decades of sanctions have left Iran with no alternative lifeline. Both Russia and Iran are on China’s leash. Without Beijing, they choke.
This is where Trump’s advantage becomes clear. Joe Biden poured money into Ukraine, stumbled in Gaza, and showed no ability to pressure Beijing. Trump operates differently. He sees foreign policy as a negotiation. He knows when to increase pressure and when to cut a deal that puts America first. He has already signaled that “China can help” with ceasefires in Ukraine and perhaps in the Middle East. That is not appeasement; it is realism. Trump understands that Beijing either acts to stabilize these conflicts or risks facing American retaliation that would cripple its economy.
The choice presented to China would be simple: Help end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza or pay the price of global isolation and economic warfare. If Beijing cooperates, peace becomes possible. Ukraine could achieve a ceasefire that preserves its sovereignty while addressing Russia’s security concerns. Gaza could be rebuilt with American-led investment, contingent on demilitarization and Iran’s retreat. Terrorism and antisemitism, already spreading like cancer across continents, could be confronted as shared threats rather than ignored.
If Beijing refuses, then Washington has every justification to escalate sanctions, tariffs, and decoupling. Either way, America wins: peace if China cooperates, stronger leverage if it does not.
The idea that Donald Trump could win the Nobel Peace Prize may sound like fantasy to his critics. But history rewards results, not ridicule. Franklin Roosevelt sat with Joseph Stalin at Yalta because peace required it. Today, Trump has the chance to force Xi Jinping into responsibility, end two draining wars, rebuild Gaza, and restore America’s global strength. That is hard-nosed realism, America-first strategy, and the art of the deal applied on the world stage. If Trump delivers, the world will have no choice but to acknowledge it with a Nobel Peace Prize.
Shraga Biran is founder and president of the Institute for Structural Reforms and one of Israel’s leading legal and public policy voices. He established Israel’s National Task Force for Urban Renewal; created the National Urban Renewal Authority; and founded S. Biran & Co., one of Israel’s oldest law firms. His books include In Praise of Opportunism, translated into English by Farrar, Straus, and Giroux and into Chinese by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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