I’m writing this roughly 14 hours after Israel launched a massive attack against Iran. These observations are based on the information currently available, as well as general information predating the attack. It’s my best effort at discerning trends and facts from an incredibly fluid situation. So, in no particular order:

One. This should not be viewed as an offensive attack. It is purely defensive. That’s for two reasons. First, the fact that Iran is on the verge of having deliverable nuclear weapons, combined with its explicit and repeated statement of intent to annihilate Israel, is in itself an act of war. You cannot wait until after your declared enemy kills you to fight back. That’s not how you respond to an imminent, open existential threat. Iran has shown the whites of its eyes.

Second, Iran is already in a hot war against Israel. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are all different branches of the IRGC. Iran provides the funds, the weapons, and the leadership. Without Iran, these groups are ineffective, small, unarmed tribal warlords shaking their fists. With Iran, they’ve been able to rain more than 30,000 rockets on Israel in the last year and a half. The only reason Israel doesn’t look like Gaza is that it has spent enormous money and energy building an infrastructure to protect the Israeli people.

Image: Tabriz airport.

Two. Israel is waging war as no other country ever has before. Rather than carpet bombing Tehran, it has been engaged in targeted strikes against the military and nuclear leadership, as well as Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. This is an amazing feat considering that Israel is striking from thousands of miles away into a massive, well-populated country, with targets spread throughout that country. This post gives you an idea of the scale of the two combatants:

Israel is the size of New Jersey. Iran is more than twice the size of Texas. David still fights Goliath. pic.twitter.com/SYH3i8yUSu

— Noa Tishby (@noatishby) June 13, 2025

When I was growing up, the great fear instilled into us was “the neutron bomb.” That bomb, we were told (and I have no idea if this is/was true), would incinerate people while leaving all the buildings standing. It would be the opposite of the atomic bombs that took out Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leveling both cities. Those were the options.

Israel is going for a third way, one that neither flattens cities nor leaves uninhabited ghost towns. Instead, this is a surgical strike at Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. Israel is destroying only those people and places that pose an imminent existential threat to Israel. I hope the Iranian people appreciate this fact.

Three. I think the Sunni nations in the region are going to be very, very quiet for the time being. Iran is a regional threat to them as well. They all knew that, if Iran went nuclear, the entire balance of power in the Muslim world would shift to Iran. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc., may inveigh against Israel, but they understand that Iran is the real threat.

Four. The administration, acting through Secretary of State Rubio, has been careful to distance itself from this fight:

Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio

“Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its… pic.twitter.com/5FFesh3dkF

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 13, 2025

I know many Israel supporters will disagree with me, but I think that was the right thing to do. First of all, I don’t believe it. No matter what the administration says, Israel would never have launched this attack without at least Trump’s go-ahead. And, indeed, sources are saying that America was involved:

???? Breaking: Israeli sources confirm that US was fully coordinated with Israel, and Trump's public statement calling Israel not attack was part of the coordinated deception.

Thank you President Trump, for standing with Israel!
????????❤️???????? pic.twitter.com/C02JYzfTe1

— Dr. Eli David (@DrEliDavid) June 13, 2025

In other words, Rubio’s statement amounts to implausible deniability. But that’s not what matters. What matters is that the U.S. is saying, “This isn’t our fight, but if you, Iran, make it our fight, you will experience a level of hurt completely unlike the surgical strike Israel is currently sending your way.” And, indeed, Trump implied that in a Truth statement:

When asked if his call with Netanyahu was about Iran, he shrugged: “What else? I’m not calling to talk about the weather.”

I knew something was up here. https://t.co/FeMq1NpzP5

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 13, 2025

Why this little game? First, Trump abhors war. Second, he ran against wars, and he tries to keep his promises. Third, having a direct U.S. versus Iran war will be a very, very bad, possibly apocalyptic thing, and we want to avoid that at all costs. And fourth, the Middle East is a tar baby, and we don’t want to get mired in it again.

Five. While Israel is the tip of the spear, this is everyone’s fight. Since 1979, Iran has been an avowed enemy of the West, and it’s put its principles into practice. It is the world’s major terror sponsor, waging war around the globe. According to Grok, Iran (which has officially been at war against the U.S. since the 1979 hostage crisis) is known or is believed to have been responsible for the following terrorist attacks:

In addition, Iran funded and often controlled the insurgency in Iraq that killed and wounded thousands of Americans, and, as noted, it’s the actual power behind Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, which have been responsible for worldwide terrorist attacks. There’s also reason to believe that Iran has been relentlessly trying to assassinate President Trump.

Any world leader would have been right to act decisively against Iran a long time ago, but everybody kicked the can down the road until it fell to Israel to prevent itself from being annihilated.

When Iran is brought to heel, everyone benefits.

Six. The mullahs are an incredibly brutal regime. If they are defeated in this war, there’s a strong likelihood that the much put-upon Iranian people will rise up and overthrow the dictatorship. After all, when England defeated Argentina in 1982 in the Falklands War (the last gasp of England being a real country), that dictatorship swiftly fell.

Seven. Speaking of England, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is doing exactly what I predicted European leaders would do, which is effectively siding with Iran by telling Israel to stop its hugely successful attack:

Kier Starmer:

“The reports of these strikes are concerning and we urge all parties to step back and reduce tensions urgently. Escalation serves no one in the region.

Stability in the Middle East must be the priority and we are engaging partners to de-escalate. Now is the time… pic.twitter.com/K5ldTDkQS5

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 13, 2025

Europe’s goal is to live in Iran’s shadow. The same Muslims who were stopped at the Gates of Vienna in 1683 have achieved their goal of European conquest simply by crying “refugee” and “cheap labor.”

Seven. Needs to be said:

The threat we face right now inside the US is activated Iranian-allied terror cells.

This is where the Democrat "No Border" policy has created huge risks.

Hundreds of thousands of military aged men made it into the country without any encounter with US immigration personnel.…

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) June 13, 2025