The Iranian parliament has announced that it’s down but not out. Its current plan is to close the Strait of Hormuz. It’s probably thinking back to the glory days of its victory over two United States Navy ships during the Obama administration. However, looking at the relative strength of the U.S. and Iranian navies, this may not be the big win Iran thinks it is—especially given that Trump, not Obama, is in the White House. Moreover, if you choke off between 20-25% of the world’s oil supply, you’re not going to make friends.

This is a story in several parts. There are a lot of block quotations that you don’t need to read in detail. You can skim them quickly. They’re there to give you a sense of how Iran and the U.S. stand compared to each other when it comes to Naval strength, as well as the U.S. Navy’s geographic proximity to Iran.

Image created using ChatGPT

First, here’s Iran’s announcement about its Parliament’s vote:

The Iranian Parliament has approved a measure to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil choke point, after the United States bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, according to Iranian state media on Sunday.

While the Parliament has voted in favor of closing the strait, the final decision rests with the country’s Supreme National Security Council, according to state media.

Second, here is ChatGPT’s best estimate of the strength of the Iranian Navy:

• ???? Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN)
  • Personnel: Approx. 20,000 (2024 estimate) opendemocracy.net+4en.wikipedia.org+4nti.org+4
  • Fleet Composition :
    • Frigates: 7 (Alvand, Moudge-class)
    • Corvettes: 5
    • Fast-attack crafts: ~20
    • Patrol boats: ~6
    • Amphibious ships: 31
    • Auxiliary vessels: 17
    • Submarines: ~19–27 (various Kilo‑class, Fateh‑class, Ghadir mini-subs) businessinsider.com+15en.wikipedia.org+15armyrecognition.com+15
    • Naval aircraft: 54 (including helicopters, drones) en.wikipedia.org
  • Global Ranking:
    • 37th among 145 naval forces in the 2024 Global Firepower index understandingwar.org+15euronews.com+15warpoweriran.com+15
    • Overall Iranian military power ranked 16th of 145 countries youtube.com+2globalfirepower.com+2apnews.com+2
• ⚓ IRGC Navy (Naval branch of the Revolutionary Guards)
  • Personnel: Estimated 20,000+ (2020 figure)
  • Fleet Composition :
• Surface combatants: ~126 small/missile patrol boats
• Amphibious units: ~5 (Landing Ship Tanks & Logistics)
• Auxiliaries: 3 transports
• Missile corvettes: Shahid Soleimani-class and others (catamarans, 600 tons)
• Speedboats: Many hundreds to several thousand for swarm tactics

Submarines, of course, are always a concern, but it’s not WWI or WWII anymore, and America’s ability to spot them underwater is probably pretty good.

Third, again per ChatGPT, these are rough estimates for the U.S. Navy’s assets and capabilities:

• ⚓ Personnel
• Active Duty Sailors: ~340,000
• Reserve Personnel: ~57,000
• Total End Strength: ~397,000
• ???? Fleet Composition
• Total Battle Force Ships: ~293
  • Aircraft Carriers: 11
  • Cruisers: 16
  • Destroyers: ~73
  • Littoral Combat Ships: ~25
  • Attack Submarines (SSN): ~50
  • Ballistic Missile Submarines (SSBN): 14
  • Guided Missile Submarines (SSGN): 4
  • Amphibious Assault Ships: ~31
  • Replenishment and Support Ships: ~69
• ???? Aircraft
• Total Naval Aircraft: ~3,700
  • Fighters/Attack (F/A-18E/F, F-35C): ~1,500
  • Helicopters (MH-60): ~600
  • Patrol (P-8A): ~130
  • Training and Support Aircraft: ~1,500

Even allowing for inaccuracies in ChatGPT’s data, I don’t think I’m exaggerating when I say that the U.S. has the advantage in both numbers and capabilities.

Fourth, ChatGPT offers this information about the U.S. Naval strike forces that are near or nearing Iran:

• ???? Aircraft Carriers & Strike Groups
  • The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group is presently deployed in the Arabian Sea, conducting operations in support of U.S. interests and regional defense taskandpurpose.com+15militarytimes.com+15ekathimerini.com+15politico.com+1wsj.com+1.
  • The USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group, redeployed from the Indo‑Pacific, is en route to reinforce the region and is expected to join the Vinson before the end of June politico.com.
  • The USS Gerald R. Ford is leaving Norfolk on June 24. While originally assigned to Europe, its deployment is flexible and may support Middle East operations amid escalating tensions youtube.com+9armyrecognition.com+9nypost.com+9.
• ???? Destroyers & Missile-Defense Ships
• Several Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (USS The Sullivans, USS Thomas Hudner, USS Arleigh Burke, USS Paul Ignatius, USS Oscar Austin) are active in both the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean, equipped for ballistic missile defense cfr.org+3militarytimes.com+3stripes.com+3.
• Additional destroyers are patrolling near the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea as part of the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s defensive posture en.cibercuba.com+15militarytimes.com+15businessinsider.com+15.
• ???? naval Command & Base Support
• U.S. Fifth Fleet, under U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), is headquartered at Naval Support Activity Bahrain. It oversees all Navy operations in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea en.wikipedia.org+2en.wikipedia.org+2en.wikipedia.org+2.
• This base hosts aircraft, destroyers, and coordination for naval operations in the region.
• ???? Broader Force Posture & Context
• The U.S. has around 40,000–50,000 military personnel across the Middle East, with many serving aboard these naval vessels and adjacent bases apnews.com+4aljazeera.com+4cfr.org+4.
• Naval forces work in concert with U.S. Air Force jets, refueling tankers, missile-defense systems, and B-52s based at Diego Garcia, forming a layered deterrent network militarytimes.com.

Fifth, if Iran digs a little deeper into its history, ignoring its 2016 “victory” over Obama’s Navy, and instead pays attention to Operation Praying Mantis in 1988, the last time that Iran had the bright idea of blocking the Strait, it might be reminded what happens when the American military turns its full attention to the Strait of Hormuz: That battle lasted eight hours, with no U.S. combat losses. The U.S. called off the attack when further efforts were obviously pointless, given Iran’s total defeat.

Sixth, up to 25% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait, with oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar, along with Iran. Choking off the Gulf nations’ ability to get oil to market is the surest way to alienate them, even a nation such as Qatar, which is just an Iranian cut-out.

Seventh, China is highly dependent on Iranian oil exports:

If you're questioning why China wants to keep the U.S. out of Iran, the answer isn't some idealistic pursuit of global peace or that China is anti-globalist.

China buys 91% of Iran's oil exports. Iran, in turn, supplies 13% of China’s total crude imports. Disruption means China… pic.twitter.com/JiSJyqpTwY

— DataRepublican (small r) (@DataRepublican) June 19, 2025

If you put all these factors together, Iran probably doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in Satan’s domain of enforcing a blockade. And if it somehow manages to do so, it will have turned the entire world, including its allies, against it.

And while I have your attention, when it comes to Iranian reprisals, one of the obvious concerns is that Iran turns to unconventional warfare such as terror cell attacks and cyber-attacks. In the past, the West has issued strongly worded condemnations when these attacks happened, but aside from Trump killing Qassem Soleimani, it has done little to strike back. I suspect that will change.

Trump probably will and certainly should respond with overwhelming force every time Iran tries something. War is about victory, not “proportionality.”

As I wrote earlier today, I do not believe that this will be a long war. Trump is not interested in the Marquess of Queensberry rules, and he’s not going to engage in little tit-for-tat fights. If Iran comes out swinging its fists, Trump is going to mow it down with a machine gun. I’m no Steven Spielberg fan, but I think this scene sums it up: