


As President Trump attempts to take on crime in D.C. and across the country, it is a good time to consider the statistics of crime.
Perhaps you have heard of the 80-20 rule. It’s a pretty basic concept that states 80% of all outcomes are derived from 20% of causes. It even has a name, the Pareto principle or Pareto distribution.
In my business consulting I was always amazed at how closely it would describe reality. 80% of your sales come from the top 20% of your customers. This was true in every company I ever worked. It might be 75-25 or 85-15 but if you want a good estimation of most things, it’s a good place to start.
80% of all chocolate is consumed by 20% of the consumers. 80% of all booze is consumed by the top 20% of the consumers. 80% of all auto accidents are caused by 20% of the drivers. It’s just the way it works.
So if you want to have the maximum impact with the least effort, you focus on those 20%.
One area where this concept falls apart is crime, especially violent crime. If violent crime followed the same pattern, 20% of the criminals would commit 80% of the crimes.
But it is far more skewed than that. It’s more like 5% of criminals commit 95% of the violent crimes. From a crime-fighting perspective this is actually good news. By focusing on these 5% -- and taking them off the street -- a huge reduction in violent crime is possible. It’s really quite simple.
You would weep -- then spit and curse -- when realizing how small a slice of the population commits the vast majority of all rapes. All these women’s life-long pain, anguish, and fear can be traced to a miniscule percentage of criminals.
And although it is anecdotal, it seems that more and more liberals are tiring of having their street-parked cars broken into. In many of these neighborhoods it seems it is a 100% probability and one that will be repeated over and over again. Again, these victims would weep -- then curse -- if they knew how small of a group of criminals are committing almost all this mayhem.
The same is true of the youth carjackings plaguing D.C.
But the solution is very straightforward. There’s no philosophy to it. No root causes bs. Just very straightforward mathematics.
If you want to reduce crime, take the 5% off the street and it is a certainty crime will fall by a tremendous amount.
It’s no more complicated than that. If politicians don’t take this sure-fire, science-bound way to reduce crime and protect citizens one must ask them what are their true goals -- because reducing crime and protecting the vulnerable certainly isn’t one of them.
John Conlin is an expert in organizational design and change. He also holds a BS in Earth Sciences and an MBA and is the founder and President of E.I.C. Enterprises, a 501(c)3 non-profit. He has been published in American Greatness, The Federalist, The Daily Caller, American Thinker, the Houston Chronicle, the Denver Post, and Public Square Magazine among others.

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