I’m not always right, but when I am, I like to gloat. Indeed, given that the world situation—especially economically—can change with frightening rapidity, I think now is the time to gloat about the economy, before something happens and I’m ultimately proven wrong in my economic predictions.

This gloat has to do with Trump’s tariffs. I have very consistently held that Trump was not gambling when he imposed the tariffs on “Liberation Day.” I had a few reasons for saying that.

To begin with, it wasn’t a gamble because the alternative was infinitely worse. When your only options are bad ones, the least bad option is no longer a gamble.

There were actually two alternatives to Trump’s liberation day approach, neither of which would have yielded beneficial results. The first, of course, was to do nothing, and to watch the American economy collapse under the weight of Chinese trade depredations and the huge tariff imbalances with other countries. America would eventually cease to be the world’s fiat reserve country, and that would have been a bad thing. (And don’t even get me started on the whole issue of what Nixon, an ostensible conservative, did to America’s economy.)

Image created using AI.

Doing nothing was the preferred approach for the Democrats and RINO Chamber of Commerce types.

Second, Trump could have proceeded slowly and delicately. He could have politely approached countries that impose huge tariffs on American goods (that is, almost all other countries in the world) and suggested that it would be a smart idea to renegotiate these policies. The incentive offered would have been to bring China to heel. These countries, many of which have come to despise the nation that has funded and protected them for so long, would simply have sneered at him, and Trump knew it.

Just as importantly, Trump knew that he had no time for delicacy. The midterms are in less than a year and a half. If Trump cannot resurrect the economy by then—taming inflation, bringing jobs home, weakening Chinese dominance—he will lose his already fragile hold over Congress and, if that happens, he’s the lamest of lame ducks.

As between crazy, cheating Democrats and disheartened, lame-duck Republicans, all of my money in 2028 would be on the Democrats. And if you thought Biden’s presidency was bad, well, the slogan in January 2029, as President Ocasio-Cortez or Buttigieg gets sworn in along with a Democrat-majority Congress, would be “you ain’t seen nothing yet.”  

So, no, it wasn’t a gamble for Trump to act expeditiously.

I also knew it wasn’t a gamble because:

1. The lower fuel prices Trump has already created through his pro-energy, anti-climate-change-madness executive orders will and has already offset price increases from the tariffs, controlling inflationary pressure on consumers.

2. China’s economy is much less robust than it appears (although that does not make China less dangerous, especially militarily).

3. America is a debtor country, buying up the world’s goods, so other nations want to make deals to maintain access to America’s marketplace.

4. Companies will bring manufacturing to America to avoid all tariffs. More manufacturing means more jobs, which also offsets inflationary pressure.

5. Scott Bessent may be the smartest Treasury Secretary we’ve ever had, at least in the modern era.

So, I was optimistic. And now here comes the gloating part:

Inflation is easing across key sectors, thanks to @POTUS' leadership.

Gas and energy prices are down 20% year over year; food prices, including eggs, have declined; and consumer earnings increased by 0.8% last month.

Low inflation combined with rising real wages is positive for… pic.twitter.com/UrXxhOJ24h

— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) June 1, 2025

CNBC: Personal income increased 0.8% in April — "almost TRIPLE the expectations." ????

"They're powerful numbers — up 0.6% in January, up 0.7% in February, up 0.5% last month, up 0.8% this month. This is a GREAT four-month start to any year." pic.twitter.com/s1Rx1KAYFl

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) May 30, 2025

RICK SANTELLI -- TRUMP CUT THE TRADE DEFICIT IN HALF.pic.twitter.com/ReO1PBTTVl

— Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) May 30, 2025

Just so you know …

The S&P500 had the best May since 1990.

Panicans hardest hit.

— Catturd ™ (@catturd2) May 31, 2025

As I said at the start of this post, everything can change in an instant, especially if an unelected leftist judge decides that he (she or it) knows better than the voters through their elected president about how to handle the economy. Moreover, data like this can change daily, so it’s always better to get the view from 30,000 feet, rather than the view from the last five minutes. Nevertheless, for now, I’m gloating because I believed.