2,500 years ago, Heraclitus declared, “War is father of all, and king of all. He renders some gods, others men; he makes some slaves, others free.” Everything since supports these truths. Confirmation is actively present in Iran, where the bankruptcy of a repressive regime’s strategic warfare abilities is being revealed. Israel possesses the intelligence capabilities to identify its targets (human and infrastructure) and execute precision attacks on them. Iran is largely limited to random terror attacks by inaccurate missile barrages. Israel is paying a price, but won’t be deterred by relatively weak Iranian responses. While Iran has some guided and hypersonic missiles, the damage it’s inflicted is underwhelming. Technological wizards exploiting AI vs. Terror, Inc. isn’t a fair contest. It's 21st vs. 7th century tactics.
The Iranian air defenses Israel didn’t already destroy last Fall were eliminated during recent sorties. Iran’s air force is gone. Israel can now incrementally and surgically bomb targets at will. Its agents are on the ground sabotaging targets. This was revealed by the Israeli drone strikes unleashed from inside Iran. Iran’s mobile missile launchers are being eliminated, further limiting its offensive capabilities. Without a defense, and a diminishing offense, time works against Iran. Khamenei is lonely.
Truth is war’s first casualty. Beyond the normal fog of war confounding real-time understanding of dynamics on the ground, strategic leaks are coming from Israel, the Trump administration, and administration opponents with agendas of their own. Example 1: Trump dissuaded Netanyahu from assassinating Khamenei. The ability to target Khamenei at will is implied in this assertion. Such a leak would strike fear in Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials. The intent would be to expedite a negotiated settlement, and/or hasten reported flights to asylum in Russia by Iran’s leaders. Trump plays the good cop to Netanyahu’s bad cop, an act the two have perfected. Trump scores points for counseling moderation, taking the high road as a peacemaker. This assists his standing with other nations (including Islamic ones) and avoids domestic allegations of being a warmonger, especially with the woke Right feeling betrayed by Trump’s support for Israel.
Example 2: Israel’s military resources are depleted. This leak could have come from Israel as a means of coalescing American political support, leading to a resupply operation. The purpose could also have been to lull Iran into believing Israel is less powerful than it actually is. The October 7 attack was premised on this false assumption, much to Iran’s dismay since. We can assume Israel didn’t initiate an existential battle without having plenty of ammunition.
Example 3: Trump dramatically announced his early departure from the G7 summit in Canada and warned Iranian citizens to evacuate Tehran. He’s working on something “much bigger.” This undoubtedly terrified Iran’s surviving leadership, regardless of any humanitarian intent to limit civilian casualties during an imminent strike that might or might not be planned. Again, the purpose may have been to expedite either a negotiated settlement or encourage Iranian leaders’ flight. Tehran targets have nothing directly to do with eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. They do relate to its leaders' residences. After Israel eliminated the first wave of its human targets, remaining Iranian officials undoubtedly were sequestered in secure locations. If civilians evacuate Tehran, the resulting chaos turns them into saboteurs working for Israel.
There’s another possibility for why Trump hastened to leave the G7. Who would want to be in a room with those clowns, including Zelensky and Mexico’s Sheinbaum, who crashed the event to pester him? The attendees sought to convince Trump not to do what he’s doing. The lack of secure communications inhibited his ability to participate with advisors during a defining moment of his presidency. G7 was the last place Trump wanted to be. He was bored, looking for excuses to exit. What better excuse than announcing a Tehran attack?
One conclusion appears inescapable. This is no longer solely an operation to eliminate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, if that ever was the only plan. The possibility, and likelihood, of regime change looms large. It’s difficult to conceive a scenario in which Iran’s remaining leadership survives. Especially with a populace anxious to revolt. Netanyahu could be elected in Iran; Khamenei couldn't. Israel now possesses the ability to decide which infrastructure stays or goes. Without key infrastructure, modern societies are helpless. Lights out, literally. Suggestions from Trump or Israel that a negotiated peace deal is the objective may be diversions. Only a secular Iran promises freedom from global terrorism. From the straightforward intelligence, the only thing “much bigger” Trump could be concocting is regime change, probably with safe passage to Russia ensured. Putin would get Ukraine concessions in exchange, explaining Zelensky’s G7 appearance to plead in opposition.
A key consideration is oil prices. Oil futures rose since early May, spiked in the first few days of conflict, but have since retreated, remaining in a three-year downtrend. The concern is that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which 20% of global oil passes through. Iran may have trouble simply surviving the coming days and appears in no position to block anything. If it did block shipping, America and a coalition of allies (including Arab oil states) would have excuses to enter the conflict. Concerns that an energy price spike could damage Trump politically appear overblown.
Israeli reports indicate Trump is about to make Iran a “last chance offer.” The mother of all clearance sales. Crazy Donny’s prices are insane. This leak appears accurate, rather than a rumor to throw off Iran. Iran’s leaders can’t afford the price of failing to buy what Trump’s selling. This marks Trump’s third deadline for Iran. On March 7 a two-month deadline was issued. In April that was altered to a new 60-day deadline. Iran ignored it and Israel attacked upon its expiration. The next deadline is undoubtedly the last. Iran caves or gets the Gaza treatment. U.S. assets are moving into position to emphasize the latest offer’s finality. The Trump Doctrine doesn’t exclude military action. It’s always a final option. Ask Soleimani.
Trump’s support for Israel has initiated an internecine mutiny from woke Right forces in the MAGA coalition. This is a larger concern than many realize, especially among younger, primarily male, MAGA supporters relying on podcasters as their influence. 70% of Charlie Kirk’s respondents oppose supporting Israel’s destruction of Iran’s nuclear capability. Somebody needs to inform them that they’re aligned with Code Pink, Greta Thunberg, and the Squad. Alex Jones or Tucker Carlson directing our foreign policy isn’t viable. Deep State warmongers occupy the opposing extreme. MAGA supporters of preemptive military actions abhorred by the podcast illiterati now find themselves aligned with Deep Staters. Strange bedfellows indeed.
It can’t be overemphasized that Americans (or any people) adore rapid, decisive military victories. Defeat is an orphan, a thousand fathers own victory. If events play out as they appear to be heading, Trump departs this incident as he did Butler, PA: reinvigorated. Woke Right naysayers would look foolish.
We’re inside a defining moment of Trump’s final term. When the dust settles the world will look vastly different. War “renders some gods.” It makes some irrelevant and “others free.”
Douglas Schwartz blogs on history and gaslighting at The Great Class War.
Image: National Archives