The percentage of the U.S. population that smoked tobacco in 1975 was 40%. That figure has declined steadily in the intervening years, and today, only 11% of the population are smokers. Knowing what we do about tobacco’s risk to health, we can confidently identify the decline in smokers as progress in the realm of public health. However, over the same period, the percentage of the U.S. population defined as obese has climbed from 12% of the U.S. population to 42%. Rarely, does one find a correlation as striking as the inverse correlation of -.98 between the smoking and obesity rates over this 50-year period. Might our public health officials be celebrating their victory over tobacco smoking prematurely?

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman in 2024 drew people’s attention to the subject of increased obesity when he tweeted the following.

He points an accusing finger at the “food and soft drink industrial complex and our government’s oversight of our citizens’ health.” He may be right in doing so, but he may also be overlooking other significant factors. The obvious one is tobacco smoking. Beyond the empirical data that shows an almost perfect (-.98) inverse correlation between smoking and obesity, there is the well-known effect that smoking has on reducing one’s appetite. On an anecdotal level, I witnessed it with several close relationships in my life. However, like many things in our society, it is taboo to imply that the public health campaign to stamp out tobacco use was not a resounding success. Whereas an earlier generation glamorized smoking in film and print, the present generation is repulsed by those earlier images.

This all reminds me of the concept of Chesterton’s fence, coined by G.K. Chesterton, which emphasizes the importance of understanding the history and purpose of an existing structure before attempting to change or remove it. A warning against hasty actions by reformers who fail to grasp the underlying logic or benefits of the established thing.

Image from X.