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Aug 6, 2025  |  
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Jack Hellner


NextImg:Seasonal adjustments are easy to manipulate in job numbers

In the September 2024 jobs report from the Department of Labor, the seasonal adjustment was the largest on record. They had a seasonal adjustment of 460,000 which gave them a chance to claim that 254,000 jobs were created:

US Job Growth Surges on the Strongest Seasonal Adjustment Effect on Record

September 2024 had the biggest seasonal adjustment factor on record compared to like months of September in history (chart 1). I had expected a strong seasonal adjustment factor to be a turning point in favour of a strong gain in jobs, but not this strong! Chart 2 shows why this mattered. The 460k gain in seasonally unadjusted nonfarm payrolls last month (red bar) translated into a seasonally adjusted gain of 254k.

The report happened to be the last one before the 2024 election. That does not look like a coincidence. It looks like the rigging of the numbers or cooking the books.

Besides monthly negative adjustments on job numbers that are rarely amplified, the BLS made a huge 818,000 negative adjustment in August 2024 for the period April 2023 to March 2024.

How much inaccuracy would it take for the media to think someone should ever be fired from the government if that person were appointed by a Democrat?

How much inaccuracy would it take for the Federal Reserve to question the accuracy of a report under the Democrats? I never heard them question Biden’s reports, but yet they’re worried about reports under Trump because of some budget cuts.

The American Spectator ran a good article by David Catron explaining why the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics should have been canned a long time ago. Her tenure, which ran from January 2024 until her recent firing a few days back, involved “implausibly robust job growth estimates during former President Biden’s final year in office and recurring technical issues.”

Fake news outlet The Washington Post was forced to acknowledge her incompetency, running this story: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday that a technical issue caused delays last week in the scheduled release of jobs data … The episode is at least the third in a series of missteps this year.”

Also from Catron, speaking to the whopping negative adjustment of 818,000:

This gigantic downward revision was not merely the second largest on record, it doesn’t include normal monthly revisions. When those adjustments are added, McEntarfer’s BLS leadership appears either incompetent or corrupt. As the Daily Caller reported at the time, ‘Including monthly revisions, the Biden administration overstated the number of jobs in the U.S. economy by 1.18 million in the year through March, accounting for approximately 36 percent of the 3.24 million jobs initially claimed.’ The legacy media have made much of President Trump’s claim that the job numbers are rigged, but McEntarfer’s record hardly rules it out.

The CBO routinely underestimates costs by huge amounts on government spending programs like Obamacare and the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CBO routinely underestimates revenue under tax rate cuts. Supposedly, these people are “experts” and “experienced,” so how can they be materially wrong so consistently? It sure looks like it could be intentional manipulation to support big government.

The Democrats are complaining about all staff cuts as they are blocking Trump from staffing up. Isn’t that hypocritical?

How many numbers reported from the government have to be wrong before the complicit media doesn’t treat them as gospel?

Free image, Pixabay license

Image: Free image, Pixabay license.