The state of Texas is generating considerable buzz ahead of the 2026 midterm elections regarding its efforts to redraw the state’s congressional districts. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate race is starting to turn heads on the Republican side, as incumbent Republican senator John Cornyn faces a tightly contested primary challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton, which could turn a non-competitive race into a Democratic pickup.
Indeed, primary voting is less than a year away, and Paxton has led Cornyn in more polls than not, which conventional wisdom suggests will make this race come down to the wire. Paxton's strength comes from his ties to the MAGA base and his ability to win statewide elections.
He won his current position as Texas attorney general in 2014 and, despite scandals emerging, won re-election by a margin of only three points in 2018. However, he then defeated George P. Bush, the nephew of former President Bush, in the runoff in 2022 by over 30 points, serving as the incumbent. He then won the midterm election handily by a margin of nearly double digits.
Despite this, national Republicans are ringing the alarm bell about the prospect of Ken Paxton as Senate nominee due to scandals in his personal and financial life. In 2023, Attorney General Paxton faced impeachment on 16 accounts, but the state legislature acquitted him of wrongdoing. He ultimately paid $300,000 in restitution for fraud charges dating back to 2015, when he was a state senator.
As a result, the Cornyn campaign is banking on the premise that Paxton’s polling lead will dwindle once voters become exposed to Paxton's immoral and legally questionable actions. The Senator’s re-election team even channeled their inner Trump by coining the phrase “Crooked Ken” and developed a website covering his personal and political skirmishes.
The primary race between Paxton and Cornyn sets up to be a grueling intra-party fight of right-wing populism vs the GOP Senate establishment. This contest, according to longtime Texas Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak, is on track to be the 'most expensive, nastiest, most personal U.S. Senate primary' in the state's history.
The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up to be a challenging year for Republicans in Congress. However, the primary insurgency led by Paxton in Texas is causing concern due to the significant amount of money spent. With reports indicating that the party is investing upwards of $100 million, this could detract from other critical battleground states, such as North Carolina and Maine, which are crucial for maintaining control of the U.S. Senate.
It should come as no surprise that both Senate Majority leader John Thune (R-N.D.) and National Senatorial Committee chair Tim Scott have wholeheartedly endorsed John Cornyn for re-election. The significant endorsement will occur when President Trump decides to support one of the Republican Senate campaigns, which will be a death blow to the other. The President has called both Paxton and Cornyn "friends," but John Cornyn’s voting record aligns with 99% of Trump's agenda in both terms, and he recognizes the need to improve his poll numbers for that coveted endorsement.
The 73-year-old U.S. senator is the third highest-ranking Republican as minority whip in the upper chamber. Senator Cornyn has a good track record of winning in a challenging political climate for Republicans. He won re-election to the Senate in 2008 with John McCain at the top of the presidential ticket and carried Texas by twelve points. His last re-election in 2020 saw him win just under a ten-point margin, but he did run ahead of President Trump’s victory margin.
Although the primary polling averages are not where Cornyn would like them to be, his numbers against the most likely Democratic nominee, Colin Allred, appear favorable. A Texas Southern University survey found Cornyn beating Allred 48% to 44%, while Paxton only beats him 48% to 46% with a margin of error 2%.
Yet, Republican pollster Brad Parscale presented a study showing Paxton losing to Allred in a midterm election matchup, 52% to 37%, among 1,000 likely voters from April. Political scientist Mark Jones of Rice University confirms Republicans' fears that, even though Paxton would be a slight favorite to win in 2026, he would be more likely to lose than Cornyn due to his "political, ethical, and legal baggage."
The Lone Star State is known as a haven for Republican candidates, as Democrats have not won a statewide election since 1994. Even when Republicans are forecasted to have a bad election year, Texas voters often pull through, as evidenced by Senator Ted Cruz's narrow victory over Beto O'Rourke in 2018.
We've seen Republican candidates struggle across the board to bring out low-propensity voters in off-year elections, and 2026 looks to be no different. So, while Texas politics become more interesting than usual, let’s hope Republican primary voters don't get distracted by sideshow theater and continue their winning ways to preserve the Senate.
Image: Pixabay