Let us give thanks that we have Donald Trump in the White House during this time of the pre-hostility orchestration phase of WWIII. For his leadership is as likely as any—and more likely than most—to stave off push becoming shove, and the Chinese lust for hegemony becoming outright hostility.
The potential order of battle is clear. It is China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea versus the USA, the Anglosphere, Europe, Japan, and the Philippines. (And while the Anglosphere and Europe are increasingly hostile to the U.S., the greater likelihood is that they will recognize that there is no hope for them in an alliance with the Chinese and their allies.)
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Looking ahead, there are two clear flashpoints: Taiwan and Iran. This essay is about Iran.
Iran? Yes, Iran. Notwithstanding how much we would like to believe that our recent military action there eliminated Iran as a flashpoint for WWIII, unfortunately, t’ain’t so.
We are all well aware that after Iran absorbed all the ordnance the US delivered, that plucky theocracy nevertheless emerged to claim victory and announce it continues to strive for nuclear weapons.
We are also all well aware that for Iran to employ a nuclear weapon, it must have one, and that, currently, it cannot and, thanks to the U.S. action, it will not build one anytime soon. However, to have one does not mean it must make one. It can just buy one.
And that reality should cause us to sit up straight and take notice of the close relationship between Iran and China.
Writing in the Epoch Times, John Mills tells us,
China has officially designated Iran as its primary partner in the Middle East, following the signing of a 25-year cooperation agreement between the two countries in 2021. China relies heavily on Iranian oil; however, if the Iranian regime were to collapse, China could emerge as the biggest loser.
The Economic Times reported that, on June 15, 16, and 17 (just after the Israeli strikes on Iran), Chinese military freighters flew from China into Iran.
These cargo flights caught the attention of China analyst Gordon Chang, who noted, “China is sending something it doesn’t want the world to know... It could be ammunition, could be drones...could be nuclear weapons...”
Eliminating Iran as a flash point for WWIII calls for regime change, meaning seizing the Iranian government, removing the mullahs, and replacing them with a republic, a representative democracy.
But great care must be taken on this point, for not every shadow group waiting in the wings for the opportunity to govern Iran intends to govern as a republic. Susan Quinn cogently analyzes this issue. For example, Quinn exposes the fact that the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which claims on its website that it adheres to liberal democratic principles, also has connections that suggest it is a Marxist front.
The central point here is that creating an Iranian republic will not only require boots on the ground (not solely American boots) to evict the mullahs but will also require careful guidance from the USA and allied democracies to assure that what replaces the mullahs is a republic, allowing the people of Iran to govern themselves through their elected representatives.