A lot of people are wondering why Donald Trump suddenly seems to have changed his position on the Ukraine War. But it is simple enough. Amid all the terrible news about Charlie Kirk, few noticed the resignation (or firing) of Putin’s only sensible advisor -- Dmitry Kozak. Kozak was Putin’s alter-ego going back to their early days in St. Petersburg. It was Kozak who had been against the Ukraine War from the start, understanding how weak Russia truly is. And it was Kozak who has been trying to work out a peace deal the last several months.
With his firing, Pres. Trump understands Putin has given up on making some kind of arrangement, no matter how one-sided.
Instead, Putin is committed to conquering Ukraine. As the Institute for the Study of War recently reported, despite the horrendous losses of men, the Russians are collecting a strategic reserve force by calling up hundreds of thousands more conscripts. This is connected with the recent incursions in NATO airspace to threaten additional military actions if NATO allies won’t pressure Ukraine to quit.
That goes along with the pro-Russian political developments recently -- the Putin-friendly coalition is expected to win next month in the Czech Republic and AfD is leading the polls in Germany, but elections may not happen there for quite a while.
On the other hand, the Russian Army is still going through a meat-grinder offensive for tiny gains this year, still losing about 1,000 men a day, as well as massive equipment destruction.
The Russians are also running out of money, their cash reserves and sovereign wealth fund will be empty in less than year. And Ukraine has new weapons, like the cheap and deadly Flamingo cruise missile. Between Ukraine’s commando teams and its array of drones/missiles, Russia’s oil industry too, is on the brink of collapse.
Both sides are desperate to field any weapons they can find. Plans made by the Biden administration to increase crucial 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine are a year behind schedule. The Russian production is much higher. But Ukraine is now being allowed to strike Russia itself with powerful Western weapons, like the UK Storm Shadow missile last year and now the American ATACMS.
As the Russians reach economic and military exhaustion, will Putin change course? Probably not. Dictators, once they dig themselves a hole, just can’t seem to stop. But it won’t matter.
I have to think in this case “perception is everything.” Back in the Cold War, Ronald Reagan understood a dangerous moral equivalency had set in among western elites, leading world opinion to think the Soviet Empire was here to stay. He boldly challenged that idea, and attitudes everywhere changed. Dissident movements sprung up and suddenly the Soviet Union was shaking at its roots.
Until now, Pres. Trump has been solicitous of Putin, hoping he would work with him to find a face-saving end to this horrible war. Instead, he effectively double-crossed Trump, just to gain another eight months of useless fighting. Bad idea.
Trump is now saying Ukraine may win outright and even take back Crimea. That must be the most unsettling news of all. Ordinary Russians are seeing millions of their young men killed and wounded, and almost as many fleeing the country. All for nothing.
Many thought at least Putin knew what he was doing and had some friends in the West. By burning his bridges to Pres. Trump, they see the last hope for a decent outcome disappear.
Throughout history, the awful Russian winter has ruined many a leader, foreign and domestic. Going into the next six months with no money, no fuel and no friends, Putin may be its next victim. Until that happens, though, things may be very scary, especially for our NATO allies. Putin has no scruples about dangerous provocations or reckless maneuvers in the name of saving his own skin. Bashar al-Assad was allowed to leave Syria and find asylum in Russia, but where would Putin go? China? North Korea? As that plays out, the world might follow Charlie Kirk's advice and spend more time in church.
Frank Friday is an attorney in Louisville, KY.
Image: AT via Magic Studio