The preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmark nonfarm payrolls for the period April 2024 to March 2025 was just revised down by 911,000. Calling BLS 911: stop issuing preliminary reports.
The over-reporting of 911,000 jobs is above even the most pessimistic expectations. Most of that data collection period for this preliminary report coincides with the autopen administration, and that’s no malarkey. One of two things is true: either Biden’s minions manipulated the data, or they were unfathomably incompetent.
Perhaps those things are not mutually exclusive, but since Biden’s minions are good at slithering unnoticed in the murk (always having “plausible deniability”), let’s focus on the more provable aspect: incompetence.
Some incompetence results from the way the data is gathered — the survey response rates have been declining over time, and are now down to about 40%.
Some incompetence results from sheer inability of the BLS bureaucrats to identify and correct the problem, which is a big reason why Trump fired the previous BLS commissioner. They were more focused on DEI than ensuring data integrity, though the latter is integral to their mission.
While newly installed BLS Commissioner E.J. Antoni injects some merit-based competence into the bureau, here’s a simple idea: quit issuing preliminary reports. What is the point in giving the market a “heads up” on what’s coming if it is always a head fake? Furthermore, until E.J. is able to improve the data integrity in BLS reports, stop reporting. Period. Given many other data sources to determine the health of our economy, that will probably be less disruptive to markets than computer-driven algorithms based on grossly wayward data. Instant reactions to corrupted preliminary reports is not the common sense that underpins our new Golden Age.
At a minimum, report jobs data quarterly versus the current monthly cadence. That way, at least the first two of the covered months may be more accurate. If data is not cleansed (meaning ensuring integrity — not the same as being politically manipulated), then preliminary reports are unnecessarily premature. There are numerous market-moving reports that reverberate around Wall Street and Main Street: various inflation reads, consumer sentiment “data,” spending, manufacturing levels, ISM, JOLTS, ADP jobs, etc., etc.
However, some of the most important data is related to jobs, with BLS benchmarks being the tarnished standard. Despite our overreliance on them, they are incongruously the most unreliable readings of our economic fluctuations. The apparent health of the employment market is a major reason that “Too Late Powell” has been a pigheaded fool; a complete and utter tosser who refused to lower interest rates (probably peevishly to preempt a Trump bump).
Perhaps, if it were known that 911,000 fewer jobs were created than initially reported, even TLP would have reduced interest rates. His tardiness (partly based on unreliable jobs data) is one reason why President Trump is contemplating decaling a national housing emergency — mortgage rates (tied to Federal Reserve interest rates) are too high (in addition to supply shortages).
While adjusting the jobs data reporting regimen is a temporary consideration, that doesn’t address the underlying causes of the possibly politically perverted data. Unlike his predecessor at the BLS, at least E.J. Antoni recognizes the problem. While he cleanses the data, he might also consider cleansing the BLS; after all, I gather that A.I. is ideal for collecting, collating, and checking data. BLS data collection, data entry, and statisticians should be on the top of the list of jobs that AI will replace.
Given their numbers voodoo, perhaps the BLS bureaucrats are into some kind of leftist numerology. Maybe the 911,000 revision is a signal to call for help: calling 911.
Image: Free image, Pixabay license.